IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jbfnac/v35y2008i5-6p679-703.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Opinion Divergence Among Professional Investment Managers

Author

Listed:
  • Gang Hu
  • J. Ginger Meng
  • Mark E. Potter

Abstract

We find that opinion divergence among professional investment managers is commonplace, using a large sample of transaction‐level institutional trading data. When managers trade together, future returns are similar regardless if they are all buying or selling, inconsistent with the notion that professional investment managers possess stock picking ability or private information that is of investment value. However, when managers trade against each other, subsequent returns are low, especially for stocks that are difficult to short. This U‐shaped disagreement‐return relationship is consistent with Miller's (1977) hypothesis that, in the presence of short‐sale constraints, opinion divergence can cause an upward bias in prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Gang Hu & J. Ginger Meng & Mark E. Potter, 2008. "Opinion Divergence Among Professional Investment Managers," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5‐6), pages 679-703, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:35:y:2008:i:5-6:p:679-703
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5957.2008.02083.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2008.02083.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-5957.2008.02083.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Froot, Kenneth A & Scharftstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1992. "Herd on the Street: Informational Inefficiencies in a Market with Short-Term Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1461-1484, September.
    2. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    3. Michael C. Jensen, 1968. "The Performance Of Mutual Funds In The Period 1945–1964," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 389-416, May.
    4. Gibson, Scott & Safieddine, Assem & Sonti, Ramana, 2004. "Smart investments by smart money: Evidence from seasoned equity offerings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 581-604, June.
    5. Chen, Hsiu-Lang & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Wermers, Russ, 2000. "The Value of Active Mutual Fund Management: An Examination of the Stockholdings and Trades of Fund Managers," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 343-368, September.
    6. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1997. "The Limits of Arbitrage," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 35-55, March.
    7. Duffie, Darrell & Garleanu, Nicolae & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2002. "Securities lending, shorting, and pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 307-339.
    8. Stephen Morris, 1996. "Speculative Investor Behavior and Learning," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(4), pages 1111-1133.
    9. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Short-sale constraints and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 207-239.
    10. S. P. Kothari & Jerold B. Warner, 2001. "Evaluating Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1985-2010, October.
    11. Steve Thomas, 2006. "Discussion of Short Sales Constraints and Momentum in Stock Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3‐4), pages 616-631, April.
    12. Keim, Donald B. & Madhavan, Ananth, 1995. "Anatomy of the trading process Empirical evidence on the behavior of institutional traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 371-398, March.
    13. Ashiq Ali & Mark A. Trombley, 2006. "Short Sales Constraints and Momentum in Stock Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3-4), pages 587-615.
    14. Jeffrey Pontiff, 1996. "Costly Arbitrage: Evidence from Closed-End Funds," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(4), pages 1135-1151.
    15. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    16. Richard W. Sias, 2004. "Institutional Herding," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 165-206.
    17. Baker, Malcolm & Litov, Lubomir & Wachter, Jessica A. & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2010. "Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(5), pages 1111-1131, October.
    18. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1058, July.
    19. Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, April.
    20. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:5:p:1957-1978 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. "Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
    22. Hirshleifer, David & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Titman, Sheridan, 1994. "Security Analysis and Trading Patterns When Some Investors Receive Information before Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1665-1698, December.
    23. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
    24. Steve Thomas, 2006. ""Discussion of" Short Sales Constraints and Momentum in Stock Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3-4), pages 616-631.
    25. Wayne Ferson & Kenneth Khang, 2002. "Conditional Performance Measurement Using Portfolio Weights: Evidence for Pension Funds," NBER Working Papers 8790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    27. J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
    28. Ashiq Ali & Mark A. Trombley, 2006. "Short Sales Constraints and Momentum in Stock Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3‐4), pages 587-615, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frey, Stefan & Herbst, Patrick & Walter, Andreas, 2014. "Measuring mutual fund herding – A structural approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 219-239.
    2. Ashiq Ali, 2008. "Discussion of Opinion Divergence Among Professional Investment Managers," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5‐6), pages 704-708, June.
    3. Hu, Gang & Jo, Koren M. & Wang, Yi Alex & Xie, Jing, 2018. "Institutional trading and Abel Noser data," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 143-167.
    4. Aaron Z. Pitluck, 2016. "Performing anonymity: Investors, brokers, and the malleability of material identity information in financial markets," Working Papers 1, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
    2. Jank, Stephan & Roling, Christoph & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2021. "Flying under the radar: The effects of short-sale disclosure rules on investor behavior and stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 209-233.
    3. Edelen, Roger M. & Ince, Ozgur S. & Kadlec, Gregory B., 2016. "Institutional investors and stock return anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 472-488.
    4. Wan, Xiaoyuan, 2024. "Margin-buying, short-selling, and stock valuation: Why is the effect reversed over time in China?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J., 2013. "Mutual Funds," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1011-1061, Elsevier.
    6. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo & Benjamin Scheick, 2014. "Investor Sentiment, Limits to Arbitrage and Private Market Returns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 531-577, September.
    7. Wermers, Russ, 2006. "Performance evaluation with portfolio holdings information," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 207-230, August.
    8. Nagel, Stefan, 2005. "Short sales, institutional investors and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 277-309, November.
    9. Suresh Nallareddy & Maria Ogneva, 2017. "Accrual quality, skill, and the cross-section of mutual fund returns," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 503-542, June.
    10. Stein, Roberto, 2023. "Are mutual fund managers good gamblers?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Gupta-Mukherjee, Swasti, 2013. "When active fund managers deviate from their peers: Implications for fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1286-1305.
    12. Nerissa C. Brown & Kelsey D. Wei & Russ Wermers, 2014. "Analyst Recommendations, Mutual Fund Herding, and Overreaction in Stock Prices," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(1), pages 1-20, January.
    13. Wentworth Boynton & Steven Jordan, 2006. "Will the Smart Institutional Investor Always Drive Prices to Fundamental Value?," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2357, Yale School of Management, revised 19 Nov 2006.
    14. Ferson, Wayne & Mo, Haitao, 2016. "Performance measurement with selectivity, market and volatility timing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 93-110.
    15. Campbell, John Y. & Ramadorai, Tarun & Schwartz, Allie, 2009. "Caught on tape: Institutional trading, stock returns, and earnings announcements," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 66-91, April.
    16. Kelsey D. Wei & Russ Wermers & Tong Yao, 2015. "Uncommon Value: The Characteristics and Investment Performance of Contrarian Funds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(10), pages 2394-2414, October.
    17. Kim, Donghan & Kim, Hyun-Dong & Joe, Denis Yongmin & Oh, Ji Yeol Jimmy, 2021. "Institutional investor heterogeneity and market price dynamics: Evidence from investment horizon and portfolio concentration," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    18. Reed, Adam V. & Samadi, Mehrdad & Sokobin, Jonathan S., 2020. "Shorting in Broad Daylight: Short Sales and Venue Choice," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 55(7), pages 2246-2269, November.
    19. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2011. "Institutional investors and the limits of arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 62-80, October.
    20. Barinov, Alexander & Wu, Juan (Julie), 2014. "High short interest effect and aggregate volatility risk," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 98-122.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:35:y:2008:i:5-6:p:679-703. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0306-686X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.