IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jbfnac/v32y2005i7-8p1437-1463.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Relevance of Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts in Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Vicentiu Covrig
  • Buen Sin Low

Abstract

This study examines the role of financial analysts in equity valuation in Japan by comparing the relevance of financial analysts’ earnings forecasts, over financial statement information, to investors’ decisions. We find that the value‐relevance of a set of accounting variables is very modest, but the incremental contribution of analysts’ forecasts is very significant. This is in line with the expectation that the skill and expertise of analysts are more valuable in markets with poor financial disclosure, such as Japan. We also find that the importance of the financial statements increases over time while the importance of the analysts’ forecasts does not change. We also provide evidence of the effect of Japanese corporate groupings, keiretsu, on the informativeness of accounting signals and earnings forecasts. The results show that the contribution of accounting variables to valuation is lower for keiretsu firms, which supports the exclusionary hypothesis that companies which are a part of keiretsu, disclose less information than do non‐keiretsu companies. The analysts’ forecasts are equally important for investors in both types of firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Vicentiu Covrig & Buen Sin Low, 2005. "The Relevance of Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts in Japan," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7‐8), pages 1437-1463, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:32:y:2005:i:7-8:p:1437-1463
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0306-686X.2005.00635.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0306-686X.2005.00635.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.0306-686X.2005.00635.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, J & Thomas, J, 2000. "Stock returns and accounting earnings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 71-101.
    2. Kaplan, Steven N. & Minton, Bernadette A., 1994. "Appointments of outsiders to Japanese boards: Determinants and implications for managers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 225-258, October.
    3. Degeorge, Francois & Patel, Jayendu & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1999. "Earnings Management to Exceed Thresholds," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(1), pages 1-33, January.
    4. Russell Lundholm & Linda A. Myers, 2002. "Bringing the Future Forward: The Effect of Disclosure on the Returns‐Earnings Relation," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 809-839, June.
    5. Francis, J & Schipper, K, 1999. "Have financial statements lost their relevance?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 319-352.
    6. Amir, E. & Lev, B. & Sougiannis, T., 1999. "What Value Analysts?," Papers 99-12, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    7. Paul M. Healy & Amy P. Hutton & Krishna G. Palepu, 1999. "Stock Performance and Intermediation Changes Surrounding Sustained Increases in Disclosure," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(3), pages 485-520, September.
    8. Collins, Daniel W. & Kothari, S. P. & Shanken, Jay & Sloan, Richard G., 1994. "Lack of timeliness and noise as explanations for the low contemporaneuos return-earnings association," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 289-324, November.
    9. Lev, B & Thiagarajan, Sr, 1993. "Fundamental Information Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 190-215.
    10. Conroy, Robert & Harris, Robert S. & Park, Young S., 1993. "Published analysts' earnings forecasts in Japan: how accurate are they?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 127-137, May.
    11. Lev, B & Zarowin, P, 1999. "The boundaries of financial reporting and how to extend them," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 353-385.
    12. Alford, A & Jones, J & Leftwich, R & Zmijewski, M, 1993. "The Relative Informativeness Of Accounting Disclosures In Different Countries," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31, pages 183-223.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bok Baik & Wooseok Choi, 2010. "Managing Earnings Surprises in Japan: Perspectives from Main Bank Relationships and Institutional Ownership," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5‐6), pages 495-517, June.
    2. Young‐Soo Choi & Svetlana Mira & Nicholas Taylor, 2022. "Local versus foreign analysts' forecast accuracy: does herding matter?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(S1), pages 1143-1188, April.
    3. Weetman, Pauline, 2006. "Discovering the ‘international’ in accounting and finance," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 351-370.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dechow, Patricia & Ge, Weili & Schrand, Catherine, 2010. "Understanding earnings quality: A review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 344-401, December.
    2. Mohamed Sellami, 2006. "Typologie des déterminants comptables de la valeur : Apports de l'approche économique de l'information dans la mesure de la valeur," Post-Print halshs-00558252, HAL.
    3. David S. Jenkins & Gregory D. Kane & Uma Velury, 2009. "Earnings Conservatism and Value Relevance Across the Business Cycle," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9-10), pages 1041-1058.
    4. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    5. Ruey S. Tsay & Yi-Mien Lin & Hsiao-Wen Wang, 2009. "Residual income, non-earnings information, and information content," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 487-511.
    6. Schaberl, Philipp D., 2016. "Beyond accounting and back: An empirical examination of the relative relevance of earnings and “other” information," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 98-113.
    7. Moumen, Néjia & Ben Othman, Hakim & Hussainey, Khaled, 2015. "The value relevance of risk disclosure in annual reports: Evidence from MENA emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 177-204.
    8. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    9. Healy, Paul M. & Palepu, Krishna G., 2001. "Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 405-440, September.
    10. Vasiliki Athanasakou & Khaled Hussainey, 2014. "The perceived credibility of forward-looking performance disclosures," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(3), pages 227-259, June.
    11. Akinobu Shuto & Takuya Iwasaki, 2014. "Stable Shareholdings, the Decision Horizon Problem and Earnings Smoothing," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(9-10), pages 1212-1242, November.
    12. Luo, Shuqing & Courtenay, Stephen M. & Hossain, Mahmud, 2006. "The effect of voluntary disclosure, ownership structure and proprietary cost on the return-future earnings relation," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 501-521, November.
    13. Roshayani Arshad & Rohaya Md Nor & Nur Adura Ahmad Noruddin, 2011. "Ownership Structure And Interaction Effects Of Firm Performance On Management Commentary Disclosures," Journal of Global Management, Global Research Agency, vol. 2(2), pages 124-145, July.
    14. Charest, Guy & Cosset, Jean-Claude & Marhfor, Ahmed & M’Zali, Bouchra, 2013. "US cross-listing and corporate disclosure policy," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 97-112.
    15. Vicentiu Covrig & Buen Sin Low, 2005. "The Relevance of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts in Japan," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7-8), pages 1437-1463.
    16. repec:mth:ijafr8:v:8:y:2018:i:2:p:126-151 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. David S. Jenkins & Gregory D. Kane & Uma Velury, 2009. "Earnings Conservatism and Value Relevance Across the Business Cycle," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9‐10), pages 1041-1058, November.
    18. Lam, Kevin C.K. & Sami, Heibatollah & Zhou, Haiyan, 2013. "Changes in the value relevance of accounting information over time: Evidence from the emerging market of China," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 123-135.
    19. Paugam, Luc, 2011. "Valorisation et reporting du goodwill : enjeux théoriques et empiriques," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/8007 edited by Casta, Jean-François.
    20. Dan Givoly & Yifan Li & Ben Lourie & Alexander Nekrasov, 2019. "Key performance indicators as supplements to earnings: Incremental informativeness, demand factors, measurement issues, and properties of their forecasts," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 1147-1183, December.
    21. Koji Ota, 2010. "The Value Relevance of Management Forecasts and Their Impact on Analysts' Forecasts: Empirical Evidence From Japan," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 46(1), pages 28-59, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:32:y:2005:i:7-8:p:1437-1463. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0306-686X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.