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Estimating the Equity Risk Premium Using Accounting Fundamentals

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  • John O'Hanlon
  • Anthony Steele

Abstract

This study uses recent developments in the theoretical modelling of the links between unrecorded accounting goodwill, accounting profitability and the cost of equity, together with Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) betas, to estimate the ex‐ante equity risk premium in the UK. The results suggest that, over our sample period from 1968 to 1995, the premium has been in the region of 5%. Our estimate lends support to the view that the ex‐ante equity risk premium is substantially less than the historical average of the excess of equity returns over the risk‐free rate, and is similar to the rates applied recently by UK competition regulators.

Suggested Citation

  • John O'Hanlon & Anthony Steele, 2000. "Estimating the Equity Risk Premium Using Accounting Fundamentals," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(9‐10), pages 1051-1083, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:27:y:2000:i:9-10:p:1051-1083
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5957.00346
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter D. Easton & Gregory A. Sommers, 2007. "Effect of Analysts' Optimism on Estimates of the Expected Rate of Return Implied by Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(5), pages 983-1015, December.
    2. Kempkes Jan A. & Wömpener Andreas, 2019. "Resolving the Reliance on Fixed Estimation Dates in the Implied Cost of Equity Capital Approach," Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-23, February.
    3. Wu, Jin (Ginger) & Zhang, Lu, 2010. "Does Risk Explain Anomalies? Evidence from Expected Return Estimates," Working Paper Series 2010-18, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    4. Allan Hodgson & John Okunev, 2022. "Long term equity risk premiums in the UK and US: A cautionary tale of weak mean reversion," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(17), pages 1728-1744, November.
    5. Schreder, Max, 2018. "Idiosyncratic information and the cost of equity capital: A meta-analytic review of the literature," Journal of Accounting Literature, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 142-172.
    6. Helena Isidro & John O'Hanlon & Steven Young, 2004. "Dirty surplus accounting flows: international evidence," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 383-410.
    7. Al-Hadi, Ahmed & Taylor, Grantley & Hossain, Mahmud, 2015. "Disaggregation, auditor conservatism and implied cost of equity capital: An international evidence from the GCC," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 66-98.
    8. Tatiana PÎŞCHINA & Romeo Fortuna, 2017. "Moldova’s Phenomenon: Can Foreign Investments Help Out of the Poverty Circle?," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 3, ejes_v3_i.
    9. Suhee Kim & William Rees & Vathunyoo Sila, 2020. "Do anti‐bribery laws reduce the cost of equity? Evidence from the UK Bribery Act 2010," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(3-4), pages 438-455, March.
    10. Firth, Michael & Rui, Oliver M. & Wu, Wenfeng, 2011. "Cooking the books: Recipes and costs of falsified financial statements in China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 371-390, April.
    11. Oksana Kim & Matt Pinnuck, 2014. "Competition among exchanges through simplified disclosure requirements: evidence from the American and Global Depositary Receipts," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 1-40, February.
    12. Angelos Kanas, 2009. "The relation between the equity risk premium and the bond maturity premium in the UK: 1900–2006," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 33(2), pages 111-127, April.
    13. Michalis Makrominas, 2015. "The impact of analyst-investor disagreement on the cross-section of implied cost of capital," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 40(2), pages 224-244, May.
    14. Georgia Pazarzi, 2014. "Comparison of the Residual Income and the Pricing - Multiples Equity Valuation Models," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 88-114.
    15. Beattie, Vivien, 2005. "Moving the financial accounting research front forward: the UK contribution," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 85-114.
    16. Fernandez, Pablo, 2008. "The equity premium in 100 textbooks," IESE Research Papers D/757, IESE Business School.
    17. Echterling, F. & Eierle, B. & Ketterer, S., 2015. "A review of the literature on methods of computing the implied cost of capital," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 235-252.
    18. Peter Easton, 2006. "Use of Forecasts of Earnings to Estimate and Compare Cost of Capital Across Regimes," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3‐4), pages 374-394, April.
    19. Gotti, Giorgio & Mastrolia, Stacy, 2014. "Cost of Capital for Exempt Foreign Private Issuers: Information Risk Effect or Earnings Quality Effect? It Depends," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 190-220.

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