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An Empirical Analysis of the Bias and Rationality of Profit Forecasts Published in New Issue Prospectuses

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  • T.Y. Cheng
  • Michael Firth

Abstract

Our study sets out to assess the accuracy of profit forecasts made by IPOs in Hong Kong. We use a variety of measures and tests to examine the accuracy, bias, rationality, and superiority of earnings estimates. The results show that forecast accuracy compares favourably with the findings from the developed economies of Australia, Britain, Canada, and New Zealand. Forecasts are shown to be superior to the predictions from time series models. IPOs tend to underforecast in the sense that actual profits exceed the forecasts. The rationality tests show mixed results. Cross‐sectional analyses of forecast accuracy have poor explanatory power although the Big Six reporting accountants are associated with smaller forecast errors.

Suggested Citation

  • T.Y. Cheng & Michael Firth, 2000. "An Empirical Analysis of the Bias and Rationality of Profit Forecasts Published in New Issue Prospectuses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3‐4), pages 423-446, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:27:y:2000:i:3-4:p:423-446
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5957.00319
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    Cited by:

    1. Keasey, Kevin & McGuinness, Paul B., 2008. "Firm value and its relation to equity retention levels, forecast earnings disclosures and underpricing in initial public offerings in Hong Kong," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 642-662, December.
    2. Sun, Jerry & Liu, Guoping, 2009. "The impact of the CSRC Regulation No. 12-1996 on the credibility of Chinese IPO earnings forecasts," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 165-179.
    3. Anne Cazavan‐Jeny & Thomas Jeanjean, 2007. "Levels of voluntary disclosure in IPO prospectuses: an empirical analysis," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(2), pages 131-149, May.
    4. Manel Allaya & Narjess Toumi, 2020. "The effect of lockup on management earnings forecasts disclosure in French IPOs," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 24(2), pages 507-529, June.
    5. Ravi Lonkani & Michael Firth, 2005. "The accuracy of IPO earnings forecasts in Thailand and their relationships with stock market valuation," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 269-286.
    6. Sahbi MISSAOUI & Nizar RAISSI, 2021. "Underpricing Process of IPOs in Tunis Stock Exchange: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(2), pages 1-1, May.
    7. Georgakopoulos, Georgios & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Huang, Chen & Patsika, Victoria, 2022. "The impact of IFRS adoption on IPOs management earnings forecasts in Australia," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    8. Wolfgang Drobetz & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Anna Merika & Andreas Merikas, 2017. "Determinants of Management Earnings Forecasts: The Case of Global Shipping IPOs," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(5), pages 975-1015, October.
    9. Li Chen & David Hay & Jingyuan Zhuang, 2020. "Initial public offering prospectus forecast errors and mandatory explanations: evidence from New Zealand," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 2167-2202, September.
    10. Suwina Cheng & Michael Firth, 2006. "Family ownership, corporate governance, and top executive compensation," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 549-561.
    11. David Citron & Robert Cressy & Xavier Gerard, 2008. "Prospectus forecast publication and forecast errors: the role of venture capitalist certification," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 87-105, August.
    12. Bikki Jaggi & Chen-lung Chin & Hsiou-wei William Lin & Picheng Lee, 2006. "Earnings forecast disclosure regulation and earnings management: evidence from Taiwan IPO firms," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 275-299, May.
    13. Georgia Siougle, 2007. "Earnings Forecasts Disclosed in SEO Prospectuses: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 6(3), pages 249-267, December.
    14. Anis Mnif, 2009. "Corporate Governance And Management Earnings Forecast Quality: Evidence From French Ipos," Post-Print halshs-00459171, HAL.
    15. Sabri Boubaker & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Antonios Kallias & Konstantinos Kallias, 2017. "Management earnings forecasts and IPO performance: evidence of a regime change," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1083-1121, May.
    16. McGuinness, Paul B., 2016. "Voluntary profit forecast disclosures, IPO pricing revisions and after-market earnings drift," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 70-83.
    17. Norashikin Ismail & Pauline Weetman, 2007. "Forecast accuracy in initial public offerings and the impact of external constraints relative to managerial choice: a research note," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 47(3), pages 513-525, September.
    18. Alain Schatt & Thierry Roy, 2002. "Analyse Empirique Des Ecarts De Previsions De Benefices Dans Les Prospectus D'Introduction : Le Cas Francais," Post-Print halshs-00584529, HAL.
    19. Paul McGuinness, 2009. "The dual-tranche offer mechanism in Hong Kong and the characteristics of IPO subscription demand and initial return levels," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(21), pages 1715-1736.
    20. Chia‐Cheng Ho & Chi‐Ling Huang & Chien‐Ting Lin & George Y.C. Lin, 2010. "Managing News Coverage around Initial Public Offerings," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 187-225, March.
    21. Vijay Jog & Bruce J. McConomy, 2003. "Voluntary Disclosure of Management Earnings Forecasts in IPO Prospectuses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1‐2), pages 125-168, January.
    22. Marc Deloof & Wouter De Maeseneire & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "How Do Investment Banks Value Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1‐2), pages 130-160, January.
    23. Carey, Peter & Steen, Adam, 2006. "Changing conditions in the Hong Kong new issues market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 484-500, November.
    24. Marc Deloof & Wouter De Maeseneire & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "How Do Investment Banks Value Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1‐2), pages 130-160, January.

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