IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/acctfi/v47y2007i3p513-525.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecast accuracy in initial public offerings and the impact of external constraints relative to managerial choice: a research note

Author

Listed:
  • Norashikin Ismail
  • Pauline Weetman

Abstract

We examine the accuracy of earnings forecasts published in prospectuses, under conditions where external influences of state regulation and economic condition act as constraints to mitigate management optimism. Our results indicate that regulation has no significant impact, but economic condition and management optimism are significantly associated with forecast accuracy. We conclude that a study of forecast accuracy over time must take into account external influences and that attempting to use regulation to improve forecast accuracy is not an effective strategy when there are strongly adverse economic conditions and when promoters or managers are optimistic in forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Norashikin Ismail & Pauline Weetman, 2007. "Forecast accuracy in initial public offerings and the impact of external constraints relative to managerial choice: a research note," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 47(3), pages 513-525, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:47:y:2007:i:3:p:513-525
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-629X.2007.00217.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-629X.2007.00217.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-629X.2007.00217.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jelic, Ranko & Saadouni, Brahim & Briston, Richard, 2001. "Performance of Malaysian IPOs: Underwriters reputation and management earnings forecasts," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 457-486, November.
    2. Lev, B & Penman, Sh, 1990. "Voluntary Forecast Disclosure, Nondisclosure, And Stock-Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 49-76.
    3. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    4. Larelle Chapple & Peter M. Clarkson & Christopher J. Peters, 2005. "Impact of the Corporate Law Economic Reform Program Act 1999 on initial public offering prospectus earnings forecasts," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 45(1), pages 67-94, March.
    5. Chahine, Salim, 2004. "Long-run abnormal return after IPOs and optimistic analysts' forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 83-103.
    6. Ritter, Jay R, 1984. "The "Hot Issue" Market of 1980," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(2), pages 215-240, April.
    7. Brailsford, Tim & Heaney, Richard & Shi, Jing, 2004. "Modelling the behaviour of the new issue market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 119-132.
    8. T.Y. Cheng & Michael Firth, 2000. "An Empirical Analysis of the Bias and Rationality of Profit Forecasts Published in New Issue Prospectuses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3-4), pages 423-446.
    9. Brown, Philip & Clarke, Alex & How, Janice C. Y. & Lim, Kadir, 2000. "The accuracy of management dividend forecasts in Australia," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 309-331, July.
    10. T.Y. Cheng & Michael Firth, 2000. "An Empirical Analysis of the Bias and Rationality of Profit Forecasts Published in New Issue Prospectuses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3&4), pages 423-446.
    11. T.Y. Cheng & Michael Firth, 2000. "An Empirical Analysis of the Bias and Rationality of Profit Forecasts Published in New Issue Prospectuses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3‐4), pages 423-446, April.
    12. Jaggi, Bikki, 1997. "Accuracy of forecast information disclosed in the IPO prospectuses of Hong Kong companies," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 301-319.
    13. Yin Chan, Anthony Moung & Kam Sit, Cora Luk & Li Tong, Millie Mei & Kit Wong, Daphne Chi & Yiu Chan, Ricko Wai, 1996. "Possible factors of the accuracy of prospectus earnings forecast in Hong Kong," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 381-398.
    14. Chen, Gongmeng & Firth, Michael & Krishnan, Gopal V., 2001. "Earnings forecast errors in IPO prospectuses and their associations with initial stock returns," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 225-240, April.
    15. Philip Lee & Stephen Taylor & Conrad Yee & Mervyn Yee, 1993. "Prospectus Earnings Forecasts: Evidence And Explanations," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 3(5), pages 21-32, May.
    16. Michael Firth, 1998. "IPO profit forecasts and their role in signalling firm value and explaining post-listing returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 29-39.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nurwati A. Ahmad‐Zaluki & Wan Nordin Wan‐Hussin, 2010. "Corporate governance and earnings forecasts accuracy," Asian Review of Accounting, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(1), pages 50-67, May.
    2. Jafni Hashim & Mohd Nizal Haniff & Ibrahim Kamal Abdul Rahman, 2012. "Tax waiver year effect on earnings management practices in Malaysia," Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(2), pages 171-189, October.
    3. Li Chen & David Hay & Jingyuan Zhuang, 2020. "Initial public offering prospectus forecast errors and mandatory explanations: evidence from New Zealand," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 2167-2202, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ravi Lonkani & Michael Firth, 2005. "The accuracy of IPO earnings forecasts in Thailand and their relationships with stock market valuation," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 269-286.
    2. Anne Cazavan‐Jeny & Thomas Jeanjean, 2007. "Levels of voluntary disclosure in IPO prospectuses: an empirical analysis," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(2), pages 131-149, May.
    3. Anis Mnif, 2009. "Corporate Governance And Management Earnings Forecast Quality: Evidence From French Ipos," Post-Print halshs-00459171, HAL.
    4. Li Chen & David Hay & Jingyuan Zhuang, 2020. "Initial public offering prospectus forecast errors and mandatory explanations: evidence from New Zealand," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(3), pages 2167-2202, September.
    5. Manel Allaya & Narjess Toumi, 2020. "The effect of lockup on management earnings forecasts disclosure in French IPOs," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 24(2), pages 507-529, June.
    6. Wolfgang Drobetz & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Anna Merika & Andreas Merikas, 2017. "Determinants of Management Earnings Forecasts: The Case of Global Shipping IPOs," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(5), pages 975-1015, October.
    7. Georgia Siougle, 2007. "Earnings Forecasts Disclosed in SEO Prospectuses: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 6(3), pages 249-267, December.
    8. Paul McGuinness, 2009. "The dual-tranche offer mechanism in Hong Kong and the characteristics of IPO subscription demand and initial return levels," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(21), pages 1715-1736.
    9. Sabri Boubaker & Dimitrios Gounopoulos & Antonios Kallias & Konstantinos Kallias, 2017. "Management earnings forecasts and IPO performance: evidence of a regime change," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1083-1121, May.
    10. Keasey, Kevin & McGuinness, Paul B., 2008. "Firm value and its relation to equity retention levels, forecast earnings disclosures and underpricing in initial public offerings in Hong Kong," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 642-662, December.
    11. Georgakopoulos, Georgios & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Huang, Chen & Patsika, Victoria, 2022. "The impact of IFRS adoption on IPOs management earnings forecasts in Australia," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    12. McGuinness, Paul B., 2016. "Voluntary profit forecast disclosures, IPO pricing revisions and after-market earnings drift," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 70-83.
    13. Alain Schatt & Thierry Roy, 2002. "Analyse Empirique Des Ecarts De Previsions De Benefices Dans Les Prospectus D'Introduction : Le Cas Francais," Post-Print halshs-00584529, HAL.
    14. Dimitrios Gounopoulos, 2011. "Associations Between Management Forecast Accuracy and Pricing of IPOs in Athens Stock Exchange," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 15(3-4), pages 235-272, September.
    15. Carey, Peter & Steen, Adam, 2006. "Changing conditions in the Hong Kong new issues market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 484-500, November.
    16. Bikki Jaggi & Chen-lung Chin & Hsiou-wei William Lin & Picheng Lee, 2006. "Earnings forecast disclosure regulation and earnings management: evidence from Taiwan IPO firms," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 275-299, May.
    17. David Citron & Robert Cressy & Xavier Gerard, 2008. "Prospectus forecast publication and forecast errors: the role of venture capitalist certification," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 87-105, August.
    18. Neil Hartnett, 2010. "The value relevance of earnings forecast disclosures: an investigation of forecast attributes and signalling in the Australian IPO context," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(23), pages 1819-1828.
    19. Marc Deloof & Wouter De Maeseneire & Koen Inghelbrecht, 2009. "How Do Investment Banks Value Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1‐2), pages 130-160, January.
    20. Chia‐Cheng Ho & Chi‐Ling Huang & Chien‐Ting Lin & George Y.C. Lin, 2010. "Managing News Coverage around Initial Public Offerings," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 187-225, March.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:acctfi:v:47:y:2007:i:3:p:513-525. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaanzea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.