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The Implications of Dispersion in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Future ROE and Future Returns

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  • Bong H. Han
  • David Manry

Abstract

Dispersion in analysts' forecasts is empirically evaluated by associating dispersion with a firm's future accounting rate of return‐on‐equity (ROE) and future returns. Forecast dispersion is significantly and negatively associated with future ROE, consistent with the notion that firm disclosures and analysts' information acquisition efforts increase as firm prospects improve. Forecast dispersion is negatively associated with future returns. This appears due to the implications of dispersion for future ROE, and suggests that the market does not immediately assimilate the information contained in forecast dispersion. Dispersion also conveys information about firm‐specific risk not captured by beta and firm size.

Suggested Citation

  • Bong H. Han & David Manry, 2000. "The Implications of Dispersion in Analysts' Earnings Forecasts for Future ROE and Future Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1‐2), pages 99-125, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:27:y:2000:i:1-2:p:99-125
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-5957.00307
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    Cited by:

    1. Nikola Petrovic & Stuart Manson & Jerry Coakley, 2009. "Does Volatility Improve UK Earnings Forecasts?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9‐10), pages 1148-1179, November.
    2. Spira, Robin, 2024. "How does ESG rating disagreement influence analyst forecast dispersion?," Junior Management Science (JUMS), Junior Management Science e. V., vol. 9(3), pages 1769-1804.
    3. Yang, Mingjing & Cheng, Xiaoke & Sun, Qian & Lu, Chao, 2019. "How does analyst forecast dispersion affect SEO discounts in uniform-price auction system? Evidence from investor bids in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 198-208.
    4. Nakano, Makoto & 中野, 誠 & Aoki, Yasuharu, 2016. "What Explains Widening Profitability Dispersion Around The World?," Hitotsubashi Journal of commerce and management, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 50(1), pages 23-46, October.
    5. Dickinson, Victoria & Kassa, Haimanot & Schaberl, Philipp D., 2018. "What information matters to investors at different stages of a firm's life cycle?," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 22-33.
    6. Tzu-Ching Weng & Kai-Jui Hsu & Yi-Wei He, 2023. "The Impact of Corporate Political Connections on Analyst Forecast Quality," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 13(6), pages 1-1.
    7. Min, Byoung-Kyu & Qiu, Buhui & Roh, Tai-Yong, 2022. "What drives the dispersion anomaly?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

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