IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/irvfin/v21y2021i4p1419-1440.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Value of dividend signaling in uncertain times

Author

Listed:
  • Hayley Baker
  • Millicent Chang
  • Choy Yeing (Chloe) Ho

Abstract

When investors are uncertain about firm value, they collect private information and contemplate the decisions made by management before trading. In this study, we examine the effects of policy uncertainty on managers' payout decisions and investors' reactions to these decisions. We show that managers tend to increase dividend payouts when uncertainty surrounding government policies is high. This relationship is particularly evident among better performing firms. Investors also respond more favorably to dividend increases in times of uncertainty. As a result, we conclude that policy uncertainty affects the firm's information environment owing to which managers respond to investor demand for information by paying dividends to signal firm quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Hayley Baker & Millicent Chang & Choy Yeing (Chloe) Ho, 2021. "Value of dividend signaling in uncertain times," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1419-1440, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:21:y:2021:i:4:p:1419-1440
    DOI: 10.1111/irfi.12334
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.12334
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/irfi.12334?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Denis, David J. & Osobov, Igor, 2008. "Why do firms pay dividends? International evidence on the determinants of dividend policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 62-82, July.
    2. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2001. "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics Or Lower Propensity To Pay?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(1), pages 67-79, March.
    3. Miller, Merton H & Rock, Kevin, 1985. "Dividend Policy under Asymmetric Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(4), pages 1031-1051, September.
    4. Duong, Huu Nhan & Nguyen, Justin Hung & Nguyen, My & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2020. "Navigating through economic policy uncertainty: The role of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Nagar, Venky & Schoenfeld, Jordan & Wellman, Laura, 2019. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on investor information asymmetry and management disclosures," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 36-57.
    6. Baker, Malcolm & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2004. "Appearing and disappearing dividends: The link to catering incentives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 271-288, August.
    7. Ikenberry, David & Lakonishok, Josef & Vermaelen, Theo, 1995. "Market underreaction to open market share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2-3), pages 181-208.
    8. Fuller, Kathleen P. & Goldstein, Michael A., 2011. "Do dividends matter more in declining markets?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 457-473, June.
    9. Marcin Kacperczyk & Amit Seru, 2007. "Fund Manager Use of Public Information: New Evidence on Managerial Skills," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 485-528, April.
    10. Almeida, Heitor & Fos, Vyacheslav & Kronlund, Mathias, 2016. "The real effects of share repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 168-185.
    11. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    12. Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015. "Measuring Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
    13. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    14. Jagannathan, Murali & Stephens, Clifford P. & Weisbach, Michael S., 2000. "Financial flexibility and the choice between dividends and stock repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 355-384, September.
    15. Subramanian Rama Iyer & Ramesh P. Rao, 2017. "Share Repurchases And The Flexibility Hypothesis," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 287-313, September.
    16. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Stulz, Rene M., 2006. "Dividend policy and the earned/contributed capital mix: a test of the life-cycle theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 227-254, August.
    17. Aharony, Joseph & Swary, Itzhak, 1980. "Qtrly Dividend and Earnings Announcements and Stockholders' Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(1), pages 1-12, March.
    18. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    19. Azzimonti, Marina, 2018. "Partisan conflict and private investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 114-131.
    20. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    21. Floyd, Eric & Li, Nan & Skinner, Douglas J., 2015. "Payout policy through the financial crisis: The growth of repurchases and the resilience of dividends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 299-316.
    22. Asquith, Paul & Mullins, David W, Jr, 1983. "The Impact of Initiating Dividend Payments on Shareholders' Wealth," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(1), pages 77-96, January.
    23. Belo, Frederico & Gala, Vito D. & Li, Jun, 2013. "Government spending, political cycles, and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 305-324.
    24. Brav, Alon & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Michaely, Roni, 2005. "Payout policy in the 21st century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 483-527, September.
    25. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    26. Michaely, Roni & Thaler, Richard H & Womack, Kent L, 1995. "Price Reactions to Dividend Initiations and Omissions: Overreaction or Drift?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 573-608, June.
    27. Shuping Chen & Terry Shevlin & Yen H. Tong, 2007. "Does the Pricing of Financial Reporting Quality Change Around Dividend Changes?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 1-40, March.
    28. Easterbrook, Frank H, 1984. "Two Agency-Cost Explanations of Dividends," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(4), pages 650-659, September.
    29. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:651-680 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Franklin Allen & Antonio E. Bernardo & Ivo Welch, 2000. "A Theory of Dividends Based on Tax Clienteles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2499-2536, December.
    31. Cooper, Ian A. & Lambertides, Neophytos, 2018. "Large dividend increases and leverage," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 17-33.
    32. Doron Nissim & Amir Ziv, 2001. "Dividend Changes and Future Profitability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2111-2133, December.
    33. Bonaime, Alice & Gulen, Huseyin & Ion, Mihai, 2018. "Does policy uncertainty affect mergers and acquisitions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 531-558.
    34. Dittmar, Amy K, 2000. "Why Do Firms Repurchase Stock?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(3), pages 331-355, July.
    35. Gustavo Grullon & Roni Michaely & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2002. "Are Dividend Changes a Sign of Firm Maturity?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(3), pages 387-424, July.
    36. Brandon Julio & Youngsuk Yook, 2012. "Political Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Cycles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(1), pages 45-84, February.
    37. Tao Huang & Fei Wu & Jin Yu & Bohui Zhang, 2015. "Political risk and dividend policy: Evidence from international political crises," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 46(5), pages 574-595, June.
    38. Kulchania, Manoj, 2013. "Catering driven substitution in corporate payouts," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 180-195.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adra, Samer & Gao, Yang & Huang, Jin & Yuan, Jiayi, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and corporate payout policy," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    2. Hussein Abedi Shamsabadi & Byung-Seong Min & Richard Chung, 2016. "Corporate governance and dividend strategy: lessons from Australia," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(5), pages 583-610, October.
    3. Wong, Jin Boon & Hasan, Mostafa Monzur, 2021. "Oil shocks and corporate payouts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    4. James, Hui & Benson, Bradley W. & Wu, Chen (Ken), 2017. "Does CEO ownership affect payout policy? Evidence from using CEO scaled wealth-performance sensitivity," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 328-345.
    5. Luís Krug Pacheco & Clara Raposo, 2009. "ON the TIMING of INITIAL STOCK REPURCHASES," Working Papers de Gestão (Management Working Papers) 06, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
    6. Brav, Alon & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Michaely, Roni, 2005. "Payout policy in the 21st century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 483-527, September.
    7. Booth, Laurence & Zhou, Jun, 2017. "Dividend policy: A selective review of results from around the world," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-15.
    8. Cave, Joshua & Lancheros, Sandra, 2024. "Local peer influence on dividend payout decisions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    9. Liu, Chinpiao & Chen, An-Sing, 2015. "Do firms use dividend changes to signal future profitability? A simultaneous equation analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 194-207.
    10. Dung Viet Tran, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank dividend policy," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 67(3), pages 339-361, September.
    11. Roni Michaely & Stefano Rossi & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2017. "The Information Content of Dividends: Safer Profits, Not Higher Profits," CESifo Working Paper Series 6751, CESifo.
    12. Paul Tanyi & David B. Smith & Xiaoyan Cheng, 2021. "Does firm payout policy affect shareholders’ dissatisfaction with directors?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 279-320, July.
    13. du Jardin, Philippe & Séverin, Eric, 2011. "Dividend policy," MPRA Paper 44382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Blau, Benjamin M. & Fuller, Kathleen P., 2008. "Flexibility and dividends," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 133-152, April.
    15. Renneboog, L.D.R. & Trojanowski, G., 2005. "Patterns in Payout Policy and Payout Channel Choice of UK Firms in the 1990s," Discussion Paper 2005-002, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
    16. Fairchild, Richard & Guney, Yilmaz & Thanatawee, Yordying, 2014. "Corporate dividend policy in Thailand: Theory and evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 129-151.
    17. Cheng Few Lee & Manak C. Gupta & Hong-Yi Chen & Alice C. Lee, 2020. "Optimal Payout Ratio Under Uncertainty and the Flexibility Hypothesis: Theory and Empirical Evidence," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Cheng Few Lee & John C Lee (ed.), HANDBOOK OF FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS, MATHEMATICS, STATISTICS, AND MACHINE LEARNING, chapter 96, pages 3367-3412, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    18. Karpavičius, Sigitas & Yu, Fan, 2018. "Dividend premium: Are dividend-paying stocks worth more?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 112-126.
    19. Attig, Najah & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Zheng, Xiaolan, 2021. "Dividends and economic policy uncertainty: International evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    20. Hu, May & Tuilautala, Mataiasi & Kang, Yuni, 2019. "Bandwagon effect: Special dividend payments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 339-363.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:21:y:2021:i:4:p:1419-1440. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1369-412X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.