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Does Policy Instability Matter for International Equity Markets?

Author

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  • Swee‐Sum Lam
  • Huiping Zhang
  • Weina Zhang

Abstract

We test whether policy risk is systematically priced in equity returns across 49 countries from 1995 to 2013. We construct two global policy risk factors based on the ratings from international country risk guide. They capture the policy risk from government instability (GOVLMH) and the quality of bureaucracy (BURLMH). Both factors are significantly and positively related to equity returns and the BURLMH factor carries a monthly risk premium of 65 basis points. A country with weaker economic and institutional conditions has more risk exposure to the BURLMH factor whereas a country with high democracy has more risk exposure to the GOVLMH factor. Overall, our study reveals the importance and complexity of policy risk in international equity markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Swee‐Sum Lam & Huiping Zhang & Weina Zhang, 2020. "Does Policy Instability Matter for International Equity Markets?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 155-196, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:20:y:2020:i:1:p:155-196
    DOI: 10.1111/irfi.12222
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pym Manopimoke & Suthawan Prukumpai & Yuthana Sethapramote, 2018. "Dynamic Connectedness in Emerging Asian Equity Markets," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Banking and Finance Issues in Emerging Markets, volume 25, pages 51-84, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. Dai, Zhifeng & Peng, Yongxin, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market sector time-varying spillover effect: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Ida Q. Nesset & Ingrid Bøgeberg & Frode Kjærland & Lars H. Molden, 2019. "How Underlying Dimensions of Political Risk Affect Excess Return in Emerging and Developed Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 18(1), pages 80-105, April.
    4. Imen Dakhlaoui & Chaker Aloui, 2016. "The Interactive Relationship Between the US Economic Policy Uncertainty and BRIC Stock Markets," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 146, pages 141-157.
    5. Saumya Ranjan Dash & Debasish Maitra & Byomakesh Debata & Jitendra Mahakud, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market liquidity: Evidence from G7 countries," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 611-626, June.
    6. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Karikari, Nana Kwasi & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2022. "The outbreak of COVID-19 and stock market liquidity: Evidence from emerging and developed equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Cheng, Feiyang & Wang, Chunfeng & Cui, Xin & Wu, Ji & He, Feng, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty exposure and stock price bubbles: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Söhnke M. Bartram & Harald Lohre & Peter F. Pope & Ananthalakshmi Ranganathan, 2021. "Navigating the factor zoo around the world: an institutional investor perspective," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(5), pages 655-703, July.
    9. Luo, Yan & Zhang, Chenyang, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    10. Al Mamun, Md & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Geopolitical risk, uncertainty and Bitcoin investment," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    11. Xiaqing Su & Zhe Liu, 2021. "Sector Volatility Spillover and Economic Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from China’s Stock Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-22, June.
    12. Aqila Rafiuddin & Jennifer Daffodils & Jesus Cuauhtemoc Tellez Gaytan & Gyanendra Singh Sisodia, 2021. "Trend of Oil Prices, Gold, GCC Stocks Market during Covid-19 Pandemic: A Wavelet Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 560-572.
    13. Nahil Boussiga & Ezzeddine Abaoub, 2015. "How Does Government Policy Affect Equity Risk Premium?," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 4(2), pages 65-75.

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