IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/irvfin/v14y2014i1p1-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What Determines CDS Prices? Evidence from the Estimation of Protection Demand and Supply

Author

Listed:
  • Sheridan Titman
  • Daisuke Miyakawa
  • Shuji Watanabe

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of credit default swap (CDS) premiums by applying a limited dependent variable simultaneous equation system to a unique set of time series data for the Japanese credit market. The estimation results indicate that CDS premiums decrease as a result of an increase in the supply of protection due, for example, to fewer opportunities for investment in other assets (e.g., loans). We also find that premiums increase when the demand for protection increases due, for example, to larger short-cover needs. Further, the quantitative impact of factors accounting for the supply and demand of protection is likely to be misestimated unless the simultaneous determination of supply and demand is taken into account. This indicates that it is necessary to include demand and supply factors to understand fluctuations in CDS premiums.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheridan Titman & Daisuke Miyakawa & Shuji Watanabe, 2014. "What Determines CDS Prices? Evidence from the Estimation of Protection Demand and Supply," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 1-28, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:14:y:2014:i:1:p:1-28
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/irfi.12022
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2012. "The Aggregate Demand for Treasury Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 233-267.
    2. Scheicher, Martin, 2008. "How has CDO market pricing changed during the turmoil? Evidence from CDS index tranches," Working Paper Series 910, European Central Bank.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    4. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    5. Omar M. G. Keshk, 2003. "CDSIMEQ: A program to implement two-stage probit least squares," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(2), pages 157-167, June.
    6. Newey, Whitney K., 1987. "Efficient estimation of limited dependent variable models with endogenous explanatory variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 231-250, November.
    7. Asani Sarkar & Robert A. Schwartz, 2009. "Market Sidedness: Insights into Motives for Trade Initiation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(1), pages 375-423, February.
    8. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08," NBER Working Papers 14612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Smith, Richard J & Blundell, Richard W, 1986. "An Exogeneity Test for a Simultaneous Equation Tobit Model with an Application to Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 679-685, May.
    10. Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 109-132, February.
    11. Kraus, Alan & Stoll, Hans R, 1972. "Price Impacts of Block Trading on the New York Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 569-588, June.
    12. Ellul, Andrew & Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Lundblad, Christian T., 2011. "Regulatory pressure and fire sales in the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 596-620, September.
    13. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2010. "Market conditions, default risk and credit spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-753, April.
    14. Nelson, Forrest & Olson, Lawrence, 1978. "Specification and Estimation of a Simultaneous-Equation Model with Limited Dependent Variables," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(3), pages 695-709, October.
    15. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Price Pressure in the Government Bond Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 585-590, May.
    16. Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment‐Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
    17. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
    18. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2004. "Order imbalance and individual stock returns: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 485-518, June.
    19. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1979. "The Estimation of a Simultaneous-Equation Tobit Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(1), pages 169-181, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roshanthi Dias, 2017. "The role of managerial risk-taking in the ‘rise and fall’ of the CDS market," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57, pages 117-145, April.
    2. Zha, Yiling & Power, David & Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch, 2020. "The cross-country transmission of credit risk between sovereigns and firms in Asia," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 309-320.
    3. José Da Fonseca & Katrin Gottschalk, 2020. "The Co‐Movement of Credit Default Swap Spreads, Equity Returns and Volatility: Evidence from Asia‐Pacific Markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 551-579, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Corò, Filippo & Dufour, Alfonso & Varotto, Simone, 2013. "Credit and liquidity components of corporate CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5511-5525.
    2. Annaert, Jan & De Ceuster, Marc & Van Roy, Patrick & Vespro, Cristina, 2013. "What determines Euro area bank CDS spreads?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 444-461.
    3. Marra, Miriam, 2015. "The impact of liquidity on senior credit index spreads during the subprime crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 148-167.
    4. Kapadia, Nikunj & Pu, Xiaoling, 2012. "Limited arbitrage between equity and credit markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 542-564.
    5. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2017. "Understanding transactions prices in the credit default swaps market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-27.
    6. Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar & Perez, M. Fabricio, 2013. "Dynamic effects of idiosyncratic volatility and liquidity on corporate bond spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2969-2990.
    7. Naifar, Nader, 2011. "What explains default risk premium during the financial crisis? Evidence from Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(5), pages 412-430, September.
    8. Chesher, Andrew & Kim, Dongwoo & Rosen, Adam M., 2023. "IV methods for Tobit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1700-1724.
    9. Lafuente, Juan Angel & Serrano, Pedro, 2015. "On the compensation for illiquidity in sovereign credit markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 83-100.
    10. Sorin Gabriel Anton, 2011. "The Local Determinants Of Emerging Market Sovereign Cds Spreads In The Context Of The Debt Crisis. An Explanatory Study "," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 58, pages 41-52, november.
    11. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Rollover Risk and Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 391-430, April.
    12. Helwege, Jean & Wang, Liying, 2021. "Liquidity and price pressure in the corporate bond market: evidence from mega-bonds," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    13. Liu, Liuling & Zhang, Gaiyan & Fang, Yiwei, 2016. "Bank credit default swaps and deposit insurance around the world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 339-363.
    14. Irresberger, Felix & Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Gabrysch, Janet & Gabrysch, Sandra, 2018. "Liquidity tail risk and credit default swap spreads," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(3), pages 1137-1153.
    15. Julian S. Leppin & Stefan Reitz, 2016. "The Role of a Changing Market Environment for Credit Default Swap Pricing," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 209-223, July.
    16. Chamizo, Álvaro & Novales, Alfonso, 2020. "Looking through systemic credit risk: Determinants, stress testing and market value," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    18. Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka & Nedeljkovic, Milan & Sarno, Lucio, 2012. "How the Subprime Crisis went global: Evidence from bank credit default swap spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1299-1318.
    19. Friewald, Nils & Nagler, Florian, 2018. "Over-the-Counter Market Frictions and Yield Spread Changes," CEPR Discussion Papers 13345, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Javadi, Siamak & Mollagholamali, Mohsen, 2018. "Debt market illiquidity and correlated default risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 266-273.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:14:y:2014:i:1:p:1-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1369-412X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.