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Forecasting Immigration in Official Population Projections Using an Econometric Model

Author

Listed:
  • Ådne Cappelen
  • Terje Skjerpen
  • Marianne Tønnessen

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="imre12092-abs-0001"> Although substantial research has been conducted to quantify the determinants of international migration, most official population projections do not include such determinants in a formal migration model. Statistics Norway forecasts gross immigration to Norway using an econometric model based on standard migration theories. The main variables include income level, unemployment, and population size in Norway and the sending countries, and the number of immigrants already living in Norway. Projections of exogenous variables are drawn from international and Norwegian sources. Three different alternatives are specified for the income variables, leading to three different forecasts for gross immigration until 2100.

Suggested Citation

  • Ådne Cappelen & Terje Skjerpen & Marianne Tønnessen, 2015. "Forecasting Immigration in Official Population Projections Using an Econometric Model," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(4), pages 945-980, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intmig:v:49:y:2015:i:4:p:945-980
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/imre.2015.49.issue-4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andreea Avramescu & Arkadiusz Wiśniowski, 2021. "Now-casting Romanian migration into the United Kingdom by using Google Search engine data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 45(40), pages 1219-1254.
    2. Tongzheng Pu & Chongxing Huang & Jingjing Yang & Ming Huang, 2023. "Transcending Time and Space: Survey Methods, Uncertainty, and Development in Human Migration Prediction," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    3. Astri Syse & Bjorn H. Strand & Oyvind Naess & Ólöf Anna Steingrímsdóttir & Bernadette N. Kumar, 2016. "Differences in all-cause mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 34(22), pages 615-656.
    4. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    5. Gleditsch Rebecca Folkman & Syse Astri & Thomas Michael J., 2021. "Fertility Projections in a European Context: A Survey of Current Practices among Statistical Agencies," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 37(3), pages 547-568, September.
    6. Ådne Cappelen & Torbjørn Eika, 2020. "Immigration and the Dutch disease A counterfactual analysis of the Norwegian resource boom 2004-2013," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 669-690, July.
    7. Rebecca F. Gleditsch & Adrian F. Rogne & Astri Syse & Michael Thomas, 2021. "The accuracy of Statistics Norway’s national population projections," Discussion Papers 948, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    8. Ragnar Nymoen & Victoria Sparrman & Bjorn Dapi, 2019. "Robustness of the Norwegian wage formation system and free EU labour movement. Evidence from wage data for natives," Discussion Papers 895, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    9. Rebecca Folkman Gleditsch & Astri Syse, 2020. "Ways to project fertility in Europe. Perceptions of current practices and outcomes," Discussion Papers 929, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    10. Thomas von Brasch & Marit Linnea Gjelsvik & Victoria Sparrman, 2018. "Deunionization and job polarization – a macroeconomic model analysis for a small open economy," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 380-399, July.

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