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Giving and receiving: Exploring the predictive causality between oil prices and exchange rates

Author

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  • Jose E. Gomez‐Gonzalez
  • Jorge Hirs‐Garzon
  • Jorge M. Uribe

Abstract

We study the dynamic connectedness and predictive causality between oil prices and exchange rates. Our sample includes six important oil‐producing and six net importing countries. Our results show that for the first set of countries, oil prices are net spillover receivers from exchange rate markets. Similarly, there is evidence of bidirectional Granger causality, which is detected for longer time periods from these countries’ exchange rates to oil prices. In contrast, for the second set of countries, oil prices are net spillover transmitters, and the causality is stronger from oil prices to exchange rates, mainly in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. However, even for this group of countries, there are long periods of time for which exchange‐rate markets transmit spillovers to oil markets. Overall, oil markets are net receivers of shocks during most of the sample period, thus providing evidence in favor of the oil‐financialization hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose E. Gomez‐Gonzalez & Jorge Hirs‐Garzon & Jorge M. Uribe, 2020. "Giving and receiving: Exploring the predictive causality between oil prices and exchange rates," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 175-194, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:23:y:2020:i:1:p:175-194
    DOI: 10.1111/infi.12354
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    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Shoujun & Bossman, Ahmed & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara, 2024. "International transmission of shocks and African forex markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Uribe, Jorge M., 2020. "Spillovers beyond the variance: exploring the natural gas and oil higher order risk linkages with the global financial markets," Working papers 46, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    3. Yıldırım, Durmuş Çağrı & Erdoğan, Fatma & Tarı, Elif Nur, 2022. "Time-varying volatility spillovers between real exchange rate and real commodity prices for emerging market economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Gamboa-Arbelaez, Juliana, 2020. "Dynamic relations between oil and stock market returns: A multi-country study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Agudze, Komla & Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2020. "Oil Price Dynamics and Currency-Hedging Behavior," MPRA Paper 100949, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Witold Orzeszko, 2021. "Nonlinear Causality between Crude Oil Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence and Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-16, September.
    7. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge Hirs-Garzón & Sebastián Sanín-Restrepo, 2021. "Dynamic relations between oil and stock markets: Volatility spillovers, networks and causality," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 165, pages 37-50.
    8. Pincheira, Pablo & Jarsun, Nabil, 2020. "Summary of the Paper Entitled: Forecasting Fuel Prices with the Chilean Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 105056, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Huang, Shoujun & Gubareva, Mariya & Teplova, Tamara & Bossman, Ahmed, 2024. "African forex markets: Modeling their predictability and the asymmetric effects of oil and geopolitical risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    10. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Uribe, Jorge M., 2022. "Spillovers beyond the variance: Exploring the higher order risk linkages between commodity markets and global financial markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    11. Julio-Román, Juan Manuel & Gamboa-Estrada, Fredy Alejandro, 2019. "The Exchange Rate and Oil Prices in Colombia: A High Frequency Analysis," Working papers 22, Red Investigadores de Economía.
    12. Pincheira-Brown, Pablo & Bentancor, Andrea & Hardy, Nicolás & Jarsun, Nabil, 2022. "Forecasting fuel prices with the Chilean exchange rate: Going beyond the commodity currency hypothesis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    13. Das, Suman & Roy, Saikat Sinha, 2023. "Following the leaders? A study of co-movement and volatility spillover in BRICS currencies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    14. Ricardo Jacob Mendoza-Rivera & Francisco Venegas-Martínez, 2021. "Impacto de la pandemia COVID-19 en los precios de la gasolina y el gas natural en las principales economías de Latinoamérica," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(3), pages 1-22, Julio - S.
    15. Dacio Villarreal-Samaniego, 2021. "The dynamics of oil prices, COVID-19, and exchange rates in five emerging economies in the atypical first quarter of 2020," Estudios Gerenciales, Universidad Icesi, vol. 37(158), pages 17-27, March.

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