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Should Central Banks Target Consumer or Producer Prices?

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  • Stephen McKnight

Abstract

This paper investigates the conditions under which interest-rate rules induce real equilibrium indeterminacy in a two-country, sticky-price, monetary model. Using a discrete-time framework, we employ the two most commonly used timing assumptions on which money balances enter into the utility function. This paper shows that the tim- ing equivalence result derived for a closed-economy no longer holds for open economies. This arises because modifications in the trading environment impact on the behavior of the real exchange rate. Consequently this helps explain the seemingly contradictory findings in the literature on real indeterminacy in open economies. Furthermore it challenges the belief that domestic inflation targeting is superior to consumer price inflation targeting, in minimizing aggregate instability.
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  • Stephen McKnight, 2011. "Should Central Banks Target Consumer or Producer Prices?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 445-479, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:14:y:2011:i:3:p:445-479
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/infi.2012.14.issue-3
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    1. Nicoletta Batini & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 2003. "Indeterminacy with inflation-forecast-cased rules in a two-bloc model," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    9. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2005. "Investment and interest rate policy: a discrete time analysis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 4-20, July.
    10. Kollmann, Robert, 2003. "Monetary Policy Rules in an Interdependent World," CEPR Discussion Papers 4012, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2000. "Forward-looking versus backward-looking Taylor rules," Working Papers (Old Series) 0009, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    12. Carlstrom, Charles T. & Fuerst, Timothy S., 2001. "Timing and real indeterminacy in monetary models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 285-298, April.
    13. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2007. "Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 44-59, November.
    14. De Fiore, Fiorella & Liu, Zheng, 2005. "Does trade openness matter for aggregate instability?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1165-1192, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov, 2015. "Do Real Balance Effects Invalidate the Taylor Principle in Closed and Open Economies?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 938-975, October.
    2. Fujisaki, Seiya, 2013. "Taylor rules and equilibrium determinacy in a two-country model with non-traded goods," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 597-603.
    3. Stephen McKnight, 2011. "Investment and interest rate policy in the open economy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 673-699, December.
    4. repec:rdg:wpaper:em-dp2007-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Chang Wen-ya & Tsai Hsueh-fang & Chang Juin-jen & Lin Hsieh-yu, 2018. "Interest rate rules and equilibrium (in)determinacy in a small open economy: the role of internationally traded capital," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-18, June.
    6. Fujisaki, Seiya, 2012. "Interest Rate Control Rules and Macroeconomic Stability in a Heterogeneous Two-Country Model," MPRA Paper 37017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:rdg:wpaper:em-dp2007-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Fujisaki, Seiya, 2012. "Taylor rules and equilibrium determinacy in a two-country model with non-traded goods," MPRA Paper 40023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Stephen McKnight & Alexander Mihailov, 2007. "Re-examining the Importance of Trade Openness for Aggregate Instability," Economic Analysis Research Group Working Papers earg-wp2007-12, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
    10. William A. Barnett & Unal Eryilmaz, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Determinacy: An Inquiry into Open Economy New Keynesian Macrodynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 217-253, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E53 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Deposit Insurance
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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