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A product–component framework for modeling stock dynamics and its application for electric vehicles and lithium‐ion batteries

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  • Fernando Aguilar Lopez
  • Romain G. Billy
  • Daniel B. Müller

Abstract

Models that study the socio‐economic metabolism often apply a lifetime approach to capture the stock dynamics of products. The lifetime is usually obtained empirically from statistical information and is assumed to describe the dynamics of the product and its components. However, for new types of products for which historic outflow data is limited, or in cases where a critical component plays a significant role in determining product end‐of‐life, a more refined understanding of the dynamics of product–component systems is needed. Here, we provide a new framework for product–component systems and 12 different approaches to model their stock dynamics. Then, we discuss which approaches are best suited in different contexts. We illustrate the use of the framework with a case study on electric vehicles and their batteries, highlighting the potential of battery replacement and reuse for reducing material demand. Improving the understanding of these complex systems is relevant for the study of the socio‐economic metabolism because (i) accounting for component dynamics can support identifying unintended consequences of product‐specific policies; (ii) component replacement and reuse can be a key circular economy strategy to foster efficient resource use; and (iii) accounting for these complex dynamics can lead to more accurate estimates for resource demand and waste‐generation expectations, creating more resilient information streams. This article met the requirements for a Gold‐Gold JIE data openness badge described at https://jie.click/badges.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Aguilar Lopez & Romain G. Billy & Daniel B. Müller, 2022. "A product–component framework for modeling stock dynamics and its application for electric vehicles and lithium‐ion batteries," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(5), pages 1605-1615, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:inecol:v:26:y:2022:i:5:p:1605-1615
    DOI: 10.1111/jiec.13316
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pangburn, Michael S. & Stavrulaki, Euthemia, 2014. "Take back costs and product durability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 238(1), pages 175-184.
    2. Dirk Lauinger & Romain G. Billy & Felipe Vásquez & Daniel B. Müller, 2021. "A general framework for stock dynamics of populations and built and natural environments," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(5), pages 1136-1146, October.
    3. Vikström, Hanna & Davidsson, Simon & Höök, Mikael, 2013. "Lithium availability and future production outlooks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 252-266.
    4. Stefan Pauliuk & Niko Heeren & Mohammad Mahadi Hasan & Daniel B. Müller, 2019. "A general data model for socioeconomic metabolism and its implementation in an industrial ecology data commons prototype," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 23(5), pages 1016-1027, October.
    5. Daniel B. Müller & Hans‐Peter Bader & Peter Baccini, 2004. "Long‐term Coordination of Timber Production and Consumption Using a Dynamic Material and Energy Flow Analysis," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 8(3), pages 65-88, July.
    6. Cyrille F. Dunant & Trishla Shah & Michał P. Drewniok & Matteo Craglia & Jonathan M. Cullen, 2021. "A new method to estimate the lifetime of long‐life product categories," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(2), pages 321-332, April.
    7. Rebecca Thorne & Fernando Aguilar Lopez & Erik Figenbaum & Lasse Fridstrøm & Daniel Beat Müller, 2021. "Estimating stocks and flows of electric passenger vehicle batteries in the Norwegian fleet from 2011 to 2030," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(6), pages 1529-1542, December.
    8. Nađa Džubur & David Laner, 2018. "Evaluation of Modeling Approaches to Determine End‐of‐Life Flows Associated with Buildings: A Viennese Case Study on Wood and Contaminants," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 22(5), pages 1156-1169, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernando Aguilar Lopez & Dirk Lauinger & François Vuille & Daniel B. Müller, 2024. "On the potential of vehicle-to-grid and second-life batteries to provide energy and material security," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Chris Kennedy & Richard Wood, 2023. "Winners of the 2022 Graedel Prizes: The Journal of Industrial Ecology Best Paper Prizes," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(6), pages 1426-1428, December.

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