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Prospective Environmental Analyses of Emerging Technology: A Critique, a Proposed Methodology, and a Case Study on Incremental Sheet Forming

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  • Daniel R. Cooper
  • Timothy G. Gutowski

Abstract

Prospective environmental assessment of emerging technology is necessary in order to inform designers of beneficial changes early in a technology's development, and policy makers looking to fund projects and nudge manufacturers toward the most sustainable application of a technology. Existing analyses often have shortcomings such as failing to consider the environmental impacts in all stages of a product's life cycle; implicitly assuming that the emerging technology will be cost‐effective wherever it is technically viable; and assuming optimistic application scenarios that discontinue long‐established trends in human behavior. In this article, we propose a new approach, complementary to the prospective and anticipatory life cycle assessment literature, addressing the above concerns and attempting to make sense of the large uncertainties inherent in such analyses by using distributions to model all the inputs. The paper focuses on emerging manufacturing technologies, such as incremental sheet forming (ISF), but the issues examined are also applicable to new end‐use products, such as autonomous vehicles. This paper makes use of approaches (such as Bass modeling and product cannibalization considerations) familiar to those in the business community who anticipate market diffusion of a new technology and the effect on existing technology sales. The proposed methodology is demonstrated by estimating the potential environmental impacts in the U.S. car industry by 2030 of an emerging double‐sided ISF process. Energy and cost models of ISF and drawing are used to estimate potential mean savings of around 100 TJprimary and 60 million U.S. dollars per year by 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel R. Cooper & Timothy G. Gutowski, 2020. "Prospective Environmental Analyses of Emerging Technology: A Critique, a Proposed Methodology, and a Case Study on Incremental Sheet Forming," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(1), pages 38-51, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:inecol:v:24:y:2020:i:1:p:38-51
    DOI: 10.1111/jiec.12748
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    Cited by:

    1. Mitchell K. van der Hulst & Mark A. J. Huijbregts & Niels van Loon & Mirjam Theelen & Lucinda Kootstra & Joseph D. Bergesen & Mara Hauck, 2020. "A systematic approach to assess the environmental impact of emerging technologies: A case study for the GHG footprint of CIGS solar photovoltaic laminate," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(6), pages 1234-1249, December.
    2. Ali Bastas, 2021. "Sustainable Manufacturing Technologies: A Systematic Review of Latest Trends and Themes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Vasja Roblek & Maja Meško & Mirjana Pejić Bach & Oshane Thorpe & Polona Šprajc, 2020. "The Interaction between Internet, Sustainable Development, and Emergence of Society 5.0," Data, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.
    4. Deidre Wolff & Svenja Weber & Tobias Graumann & Stefan Zebrowski & Nils Mainusch & Nikolas Dilger & Felipe Cerdas & Sabrina Zellmer, 2023. "An Environmental and Technical Evaluation of Vacuum-Based Thin Film Technologies: Lithium Niobate Coated Cathode Active Material for Use in All-Solid-State Battery Cells," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-22, January.
    5. Parolin, Giácomo & McAloone, Tim C. & Pigosso, Daniela C.A., 2024. "How can technology assessment tools support sustainable innovation? A systematic literature review and synthesis," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

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