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Expectation‐driven fluctuations and welfare loss under free trade in two‐country models

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  • Kazuo Nishimura
  • Alain Venditti
  • Makoto Yano

Abstract

This paper investigates the interlinkage in the business cycles based on expectation‐driven fluctuations of large‐country economies in a free‐trade equilibrium. We consider a two‐country, two‐good, two‐factor general equilibrium model with sector‐specific externalities. We show that some country's expectation‐driven fluctuations can spread throughout the world once trade opens even if the other country has determinacy under autarky. We thus prove that under free trade, globalization and market integration can have destabilizing effects on a country's competitive equilibrium. Finally, we characterize a configuration in which opening to international trade improves the stationary welfare at the world level but deteriorates the stationary welfare of the country that imports investment goods and exports consumption goods. We conclude that in opposition to the standard belief, international trade might not be beneficial to all trading partners in the long run.

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  • Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano, 2010. "Expectation‐driven fluctuations and welfare loss under free trade in two‐country models," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 6(1), pages 97-125, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ijethy:v:6:y:2010:i:1:p:97-125
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1742-7363.2009.00124.x
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    1. Nicholas C. S. Sim & Kong‐Weng Ho, 2007. "Autarkic indeterminacy and trade determinacy," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 3(4), pages 315-328, December.
    2. Kazuo Nishimura & Koji Shimomura, 2012. "Trade and Indeterminacy in a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 347-361, Springer.
    3. Jess Benhabib & Kazuo Nishimura, 2012. "Indeterminacy and Sunspots with Constant Returns," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 311-346, Springer.
    4. Weder, Mark, 2001. "Indeterminacy in a Small Open Economy Ramsey Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 339-356, June.
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    6. Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano, 2006. "Endogenous Fluctuations In Two‐Country Models," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(4), pages 516-532, December.
    7. Kazuo Nishimura & Jess Benhabib & Alain Venditti, 2002. "Indeterminacy and cycles in two-sector discrete-time model," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 20(2), pages 217-235.
    8. Qinglai Meng & Andrés Velasco, 2003. "Indeterminacy in a small open economy with endogenous labor supply," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 22(3), pages 661-669, October.
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    12. Kazuo Nishimura & Makoto Yano, 2012. "Interlinkage in the Endogenous Real Business Cycles of International Economies," Springer Books, in: John Stachurski & Alain Venditti & Makoto Yano (ed.), Nonlinear Dynamics in Equilibrium Models, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 97-124, Springer.
    13. Kazuo Nishimura & Koji Shimomura & Ping Wang, 2005. "Production externalities and local dynamics in discrete‐time multi‐sector growth models with general production technologies," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 1(4), pages 299-312, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick A. Pintus & Yi Wen & Xiaochuan Xing, 2019. "International credit markets and global business cycles," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 15(1), pages 53-75, March.
    2. Eric W. Bond & Kazumichi Iwasa & Kazuo Nishimura, 2012. "The dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin model: A diagrammatic analysis," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 8(2), pages 197-211, June.
    3. Boucekkine, Raouf & Kazuo, Nishimura & Venditti, Alain, 2017. "Introduction to international financial markets and banking systems crises," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 87-91.
    4. Antoine Le Riche, 2017. "Macroeconomic volatility and trade in OLG economies," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 13(4), pages 401-425, December.
    5. Nastasia Henry & Alain Venditti, 2023. "On the (de)stabilization role of protectionism: Theory and evidence," Working Papers hal-04311555, HAL.
    6. Kazuo Nishimura & Myrna Wooders & Makoto Yano, 2013. "Macroeconomic dynamics and its micro foundation: A special issue in honor of Cuong Le Van," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 9(1), pages 1-3, March.
    7. Le Riche, Antoine & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Modesto, Leonor, 2022. "Intra-industry trade, involuntary unemployment and macroeconomic stability," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

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