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The Vulnerable World Hypothesis

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  • Nick Bostrom

Abstract

Scientific and technological progress might change people's capabilities or incentives in ways that would destabilize civilization. For example, advances in DIY biohacking tools might make it easy for anybody with basic training in biology to kill millions; novel military technologies could trigger arms races in which whoever strikes first has a decisive advantage; or some economically advantageous process may be invented that produces disastrous negative global externalities that are hard to regulate. This paper introduces the concept of a vulnerable world: roughly, one in which there is some level of technological development at which civilization almost certainly gets devastated by default, i.e. unless it has exited the ‘semi‐anarchic default condition’. Several counterfactual historical and speculative future vulnerabilities are analyzed and arranged into a typology. A general ability to stabilize a vulnerable world would require greatly amplified capacities for preventive policing and global governance. The vulnerable world hypothesis thus offers a new perspective from which to evaluate the risk‐benefit balance of developments towards ubiquitous surveillance or a unipolar world order.

Suggested Citation

  • Nick Bostrom, 2019. "The Vulnerable World Hypothesis," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 10(4), pages 455-476, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:glopol:v:10:y:2019:i:4:p:455-476
    DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.12718
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    Cited by:

    1. Bekenova Zhumagul & Müürsepp Peeter & Nurysheva Gulzhikhan & Turarbekova Laura, 2022. "Artificial Intelligence, Value Alignment and Rationality," TalTech Journal of European Studies, Sciendo, vol. 12(1), pages 79-98, May.
    2. Kira J. Cooper & Robert B. Gibson, 2022. "A Novel Framework for Inner-Outer Sustainability Assessment," Challenges, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-27, December.
    3. Gabel Taggart, 2023. "Taking stock of systems for organizing existential and global catastrophic risks: Implications for policy," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(3), pages 489-499, June.
    4. Burkhard C. Schipper, 2024. "Predicting the Unpredictable under Subjective Expected Utility," Papers 2403.01421, arXiv.org.
    5. Matthew Rendall, 2022. "Nuclear war as a predictable surprise," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(5), pages 782-791, November.
    6. Tom Hobson & Olaf Corry, 2023. "Existential security: Safeguarding humanity or globalising power?," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(4), pages 633-637, September.
    7. Rasmus Karlsson, 2021. "Learning in the Anthropocene," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-11, June.
    8. de Neufville, Robert & Baum, Seth D., 2021. "Collective action on artificial intelligence: A primer and review," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Nathan Alexander Sears, 2020. "Existential Security: Towards a Security Framework for the Survival of Humanity," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 11(2), pages 255-266, April.
    10. Christopher Nathan & Keith Hyams, 2022. "Global policymakers and catastrophic risk," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 55(1), pages 3-21, March.
    11. Ionel Elena-Simona & Miron Alexandra-Dorina, 2023. "Bullwhip Effect Demand Variation and Amplification within Supply Chains," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 246-253, July.
    12. Ludmila Кondratska & Liudmila Romanovska & Tetiana Kravchyna & Nataliia Korolova & Kateryna Oliynyk, 2021. "Bioethics as an Anthropological Challenge," Postmodern Openings, Editura Lumen, Department of Economics, vol. 12(3Sup1), pages 61-75, September.

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