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Macrofactor Conditional Volatilities, Time-Varying Risk Premia and Stock Return Behavior

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  • Koutoulas, George
  • Kryzanowski, Lawrence

Abstract

An Arbitrage Pricing Model is estimated in which the risk premia vary in proportion to the conditional volatilities of the macroeconomic innovations which follow an autoregressive specification. The conditional volatilities of the macroeconomic innovations exhibit strong time-variation from month to month. For size-ranked portfolios of all the shares traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange over the period from March 1962 through March 1988, five macrofactors (namely, the lag of industrial production, the Canadian index of 10 leading indicators, the U.S. composite index of 12 leading indicators, the exchange rate and the residual market factor) have time-varying and priced risk premia. The small-firm effect is absent in the risk-adjusted returns, and a significant portion of the observed January seasonality is explained by the model with time-varying risk premia. Copyright 1996 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Koutoulas, George & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 1996. "Macrofactor Conditional Volatilities, Time-Varying Risk Premia and Stock Return Behavior," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 31(1), pages 169-195, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:31:y:1996:i:1:p:169-95
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    Cited by:

    1. Kia, Amir, 2003. "Rational speculators and equity volatility as a measure of ex ante risk," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 135-157, July.
    2. Daly, Kevin, 2008. "Financial volatility: Issues and measuring techniques," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(11), pages 2377-2393.
    3. Kearney, Colm, 2000. "The determination and international transmission of stock market volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 31-52.
    4. Margarita María Mosso Martínez & Francisco López-Herrera, 2019. "Relación de equilibrio en la Morosidad y el Deterioro de la cartera de hipotecas bursatilizadas en México," Revista de Investigación en Ciencias Contables y Administrativas, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Facultad de Contaduría y Ciencias Administrativas, vol. 5(1), pages 3-31, December.
    5. Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2010. "The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 65-71, June.
    6. Margarita María Mosso Martínez & Francisco López-Herrera, 2019. "Relación de equilibrio en la Morosidad y el Deterioro de la cartera de hipotecas bursatilizadas en México," Revista de Investigación en Ciencias Contables y Administrativas, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo, Facultad de Contaduría y Ciencias Administrativas, vol. 5(1), pages 3-31, December.
    7. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2005. "Portfolio performance measurement using APM-free kernel models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 623-659, March.
    8. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2002. "Dynamic Effects of Currency Depreciation on Stock Market Returns during the Asian Financial Crisis," Working papers 2002-31, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    9. Hutson, Elaine & Kearney, Colm, 2005. "Merger arbitrage and the interaction between target and bidder stocks during takeover bids," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-26, March.
    10. Shujie Yao & Dan Luo & Stephen Morgan, 2008. "Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and Bank Stock Prices in China: A Causality Analysis," Discussion Papers 08/25, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    11. Wenshwo Fang, 2002. "The effects of currency depreciation on stock returns: evidence from five East Asian economies," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 195-199.
    12. Kearney, Colm & Daly, Kevin, 1997. "Monetary volatility and real output volatility: An empirical model of the financial transmission mechanism in Australia," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 77-95.
    13. George Athanassakos, 2002. "The Scrutinized-firm Effect, Portfolio Rebalancing, Stock Return Seasonality, and the Pervasiveness of the January Effect in Canada," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 6(1), pages 1-27, March.
    14. Sadorsky, Perry, 2003. "The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 191-205.
    15. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2002. "Currency Depreciation and Korean Stock Market Performance during the Asian Financial Crisis," Working papers 2002-30, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    16. Colm Kearney & Kevin Daly, 1998. "The causes of stock market volatility in Australia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 597-605.
    17. Sharif Ullah Jan & Hashim Khan, 2018. "Return Volatility and Macroeconomic Factors: A Comparison of US and Pakistani Firms," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 10(2), pages 1-28, June.
    18. Javid, Attiya Yasmin & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2008. "Testing multifactor capital asset pricing model in case of Pakistani market," MPRA Paper 37341, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Fernando Rubio, 2005. "Eficiencia De Mercado, Administracion De Carteras De Fondos Y Behavioural Finance," Finance 0503028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2005.
    20. Syed Kamran Ali Haider & Shujahat Haider Hashmi & Ishtiaq Ahmed, 2017. "Systematic Risk Factors And Stock Return Volatility," APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, AGRIMBA, vol. 11(1-2), September.
    21. Perry Sadorsky, 2003. "The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 191-205.
    22. Padrón, Yaiza García & Boza, Juan García, 2006. "Which are the Risk Factors in the Pricing of Personal Pension in Spain?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 60(2), November.

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