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School Holidays and Stock Market Seasonality

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  • Lily Fang
  • Chunmei Lin
  • Yuping Shao

Abstract

Using school holiday data from 47 countries, we find a strong link between school holidays and market returns. Stock market returns in the month after major school holidays are 0.6% to 1% lower than in other months. This explains, but is not limited to, the “September effect.†In the United States, September is the only month that exhibits a negative average return over the past century. The postschool holiday effect remains even with monthly fixed effects. We explore the explanation that the effect is due to investor inattention during school holidays, which slows the incorporation of (negative) information in security prices.

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  • Lily Fang & Chunmei Lin & Yuping Shao, 2018. "School Holidays and Stock Market Seasonality," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(1), pages 131-157, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:47:y:2018:i:1:p:131-157
    DOI: 10.1111/fima.12182
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vladimir Petrov & Anton Golub & Richard Olsen, 2019. "Instantaneous Volatility Seasonality of High-Frequency Markets in Directional-Change Intrinsic Time," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-31, April.
    2. Despagne, Colette & Manzano-Munguía, María Cristina, 2020. "Youth return migration (US-Mexico): Students’ citizenship in Mexican schools," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Kim, Jae H. & Shamsuddin, Abul, 2023. "Stock market anomalies: An extreme bounds analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Kliger, Doron & Qadan, Mahmoud, 2019. "The High Holidays: Psychological mechanisms of honesty in real-life financial decisions," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 121-137.
    5. Kucheev, Yury O. & Sorensson, Tomas, 2019. "The seasonality in sell-side analysts’ recommendations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 162-168.

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