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Will a No‐deal Brexit Disturb the EU‐UK Agri‐food Trade?

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  • Angela Cheptea
  • Marilyne Huchet

Abstract

The UK's decision to leave the European Union (EU) marks a turning point in the history of the EU. We analyse the impacts of an exit with no deal on agri‐food trade using the temporary customs duties on imports announced by the British government. We focus on three product groups highly traded between the EU and the UK: wine, cheese and meat preparations. First, we show that a no‐deal Brexit will put pressure on EU food producers exporting to the UK, Ireland being the most exposed. Second, impacts differ across products. The EU is a key wine supplier to the UK, but the expected removal of import tariffs may permit New World suppliers to grab market shares. The UK is also highly dependent on the EU for its imports of cheese. In the case of a no‐deal, EU producers will face increased competition from third country producers of cheese varieties without geographical indications. The EU exports of meat preparations seem the most affected by a no‐deal Brexit. In addition to the strong position of some non‐EU suppliers on the British market, which will continue to enjoy a preferential market access, the UK's tariffs on meat products imported from the EU will rise sharply. La décision du Royaume‐Uni de quitter l'Union européenne (UE) marque un tournant dans l'histoire européenne. Nous analysons les effets d'une sortie sans accord sur le commerce agroalimentaire en employant les droits de douane temporaires sur les importations, annoncés par le gouvernement britannique. Nous nous concentrons sur trois groupes de produits fortement échangés entre l'UE et le Royaume‐Uni: le vin, le fromage et les préparations à base de viande. Premièrement, nous montrons qu'un Brexit sans accord pèsera sur les producteurs de denrées alimentaires de l'UE exportant vers le Royaume‐Uni, l'Irlande étant le pays le plus exposé. Deuxièmement, les impacts diffèrent d'un produit à l'autre. L'UE est l'un des principaux fournisseurs de vin du Royaume‐Uni, mais la suppression attendue des droits de douanes à l'importation pourrait permettre aux fournisseurs du Nouveau Monde d'obtenir des parts de marché. Le Royaume‐Uni est également fortement dépendant de l'UE pour ses importations de fromage. En cas d'absence d'accord, les producteurs de l'UE seront confrontés à une concurrence accrue des producteurs de types de fromage de pays tiers sans indication géographique. Les exportations de préparations à base de viande de l'UE semblent être les plus touchées par un Brexit sans accord. Outre la forte position de certains fournisseurs non européens sur le marché britannique, qui continueront à bénéficier d'un accès préférentiel à ce marché, les droits de douane appliqués par le Royaume‐Uni aux produits carnés importés de l'UE augmenteront fortement. Die Entscheidung des Vereinigten Königreichs, die Europäische Union (EU) zu verlassen, markiert einen Wendepunkt in der europäischen Geschichte. Wir analysieren die Auswirkungen eines Ausstiegs ohne Abkommen auf den Agrar‐ und Lebensmittelhandel unter Verwendung der von der britischen Regierung angekündigten temporären Zölle auf Einfuhren. Wir konzentrieren uns auf drei Produktgruppen, die zwischen der EU und dem Vereinigten Königreich intensiv gehandelt werden: Wein, Käse und Fleischerzeugnisse. Erstens zeigen wir, dass ein No‐Deal‐Brexit Druck auf die EU‐Lebensmittelhersteller, die nach Großbritannien exportieren, ausüben wird, wobei Irland am stärksten betroffen sein wird. Zweitens sind die Auswirkungen von Produkt zu Produkt unterschiedlich. Die EU ist ein bedeutender Weinlieferant des Vereinigten Königreichs. Die zu erwartende Abschaffung der Einfuhrzölle könnte es jedoch den Lieferanten aus Nord‐ und Südamerika ermöglichen, Marktanteile zu gewinnen. Auch bei der Einfuhr von Käse ist das Vereinigte Königreich in hohem Maße von der EU abhängig. Im Falle eines No‐Deals werden Produzenten aus der EU einem verschärften Wettbewerb mit Erzeugern von Käseprodukten ohne Herkunftsangabe aus Drittländern ausgesetzt sein. Die Exporte von EU‐Fleischerzeugnissen scheinen am stärksten von einem No‐Deal‐Brexit betroffen zu sein. Zusätzlich zu der guten Position einiger Nicht‐EU‐Lieferanten auf dem britischen Markt, die auch künftig einen bevorzugten Marktzugang genießen werden, werden die Zölle des Vereinigten Königreichs auf aus der EU eingeführte Fleischerzeugnisse stark ansteigen.

Suggested Citation

  • Angela Cheptea & Marilyne Huchet, 2019. "Will a No‐deal Brexit Disturb the EU‐UK Agri‐food Trade?," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 18(2), pages 28-36, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:eurcho:v:18:y:2019:i:2:p:28-36
    DOI: 10.1111/1746-692X.12237
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    1. Alan Swinbank, 2018. "Food, Farm and Rural Policies after Brexit? Some Knowns, and Known Unknowns," EuroChoices, The Agricultural Economics Society, vol. 17(2), pages 4-11, August.
    2. Swati Dhingra & Hanwei Huang & Gianmarco Ottaviano & João Paulo Pessoa & Thomas Sampson & John Van Reenen, 2017. "The costs and benefits of leaving the EU: trade effects," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(92), pages 651-705.
    3. Marie-Vivien, Delphine & Biénabe, Estelle, 2017. "The Multifaceted Role of the State in the Protection of Geographical Indications: A Worldwide Review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-11.
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