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Dispersion in Analyst Forecasts and the Profitability of Earnings Momentum Strategies

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  • Andreas Dische

Abstract

This paper shows that the dispersion in analysts’ consensus forecasts contains incremental information to predict future stock returns. Consistent with prior research, stock prices in the German market underreact to news about future earnings and drift in the direction suggested by analysts’ forecasts revisions. Even higher abnormal returns can be achieved by applying such an earnings momentum strategy to stocks with a low dispersion in analyst forecasts. These results support one of the recent behavioural models in which investors underweight new evidence and conservatively update their beliefs in the right direction, but by too little in magnitude with respect to more objective information.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Dische, 2002. "Dispersion in Analyst Forecasts and the Profitability of Earnings Momentum Strategies," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 8(2), pages 211-228, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:8:y:2002:i:2:p:211-228
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-036X.00185
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea S Au, 2007. "Extracting information from European analyst forecasts," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(4), pages 228-237, November.
    2. Syamsul Idul Adha & A. Sakir, 2021. "Effect of Minimum Tick Size Policy on Price Efficiency and Execution Cost," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 29-41.
    3. Marina Balboa & J. Carlos Gómez‐Sala & Germán López‐Espinosa, 2009. "The Value of Adjusting the Bias in Recommendations: International Evidence," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(1), pages 208-230, January.
    4. Fink, Josef, 2021. "A review of the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    5. Qian Chen & Xiang Gao & Gangchen Liu, 2021. "Limited Attention and Post-Earnings Announcement Drift: Evidence from China s Stock Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17.
    6. Sam Agyei‐Ampomah, 2007. "The Post‐Cost Profitability of Momentum Trading Strategies: Further Evidence from the UK," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(4), pages 776-802, September.
    7. Constantinos Antoniou & Emilios C. Galariotis & Daniel Read, 2014. "Ambiguity Aversion, Company Size and the Pricing of Earnings Forecasts," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(3), pages 633-651, June.
    8. repec:grz:wpsses:2020-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Bohl, Martin T. & Czaja, Marc-Gregor & Kaufmann, Philipp, 2016. "Momentum profits, market cycles, and rebounds: Evidence from Germany," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 139-159.
    10. Carlos Forner & Sonia Sanabria, 2010. "Post-Earnings Announcement Drift in Spain and Behavioural Finance Models," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 775-815.
    11. Chahine, Salim, 2004. "Dispersion of analysts' forecasts and the profitability of trading strategies around the preannouncement," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 67-79, February.
    12. John A. Doukas & Phillip J. McKnight, 2005. "European Momentum Strategies, Information Diffusion, and Investor Conservatism," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(3), pages 313-338, June.
    13. Jorida Papakroni, 2018. "The dispersion anomaly and analyst recommendations," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 861-896, April.
    14. Gharghori, Philip & See, Quin & Veeraraghavan, Madhu, 2011. "Difference of opinion and the cross-section of equity returns: Australian evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 435-446, September.
    15. Volkan Muslu & Sunay Mutlu & Suresh Radhakrishnan & Albert Tsang, 2019. "Corporate Social Responsibility Report Narratives and Analyst Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 154(4), pages 1119-1142, February.
    16. Thomas Zellweger & Roger Meister & Urs Fueglistaller, 2007. "The outperformance of family firms: the role of variance in earnings per share and analyst forecast dispersion on the Swiss market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(2), pages 203-220, June.
    17. Maretno Harjoto & Hoje Jo, 2015. "Legal vs. Normative CSR: Differential Impact on Analyst Dispersion, Stock Return Volatility, Cost of Capital, and Firm Value," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 1-20, April.
    18. Pornsit Jiraporn & Yixin Liu & Young S. Kim, 2014. "How Do Powerful CEOs Affect Analyst Coverage?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(3), pages 652-676, June.
    19. Hong‐Yi Chen & Pin‐Huang Chou & Chia‐Hsun Hsieh, 2018. "Persistency of the momentum effect," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(5), pages 856-892, November.
    20. Hong‐Min Chun, 2019. "Does corporate philanthropic giving reduce analyst earnings dispersion? Evidence from Korea," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(4), pages 956-964, July.
    21. Sharad Asthana & Rachana Kalelkar, 2020. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on disclosure and pricing of earnings news," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1481-1512, November.
    22. Yuan Wu & Taufiq Choudhry, 2018. "Information Uncertainty and Momentum Phenomenon Amidst Market Swings: Evidence From the Chinese Class A Share Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 25(2), pages 111-136, June.
    23. Sharad Asthana & Rachana Kalelkar, 0. "Impact of economic policy uncertainty on disclosure and pricing of earnings news," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-32.
    24. Ciccone, Stephen J., 2005. "Trends in analyst earnings forecast properties," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 1-22.

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