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An explanation of the forward premium ‘puzzle’

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  • Richard Roll
  • Shu Yan

Abstract

Existing literature reports a puzzle about the forward rate premium over the spot foreign exchange rate. The premium is often negatively correlated with subsequent changes in the spot rate. This defies economic intuition and possibly violates market efficiency. Rational explanations include non‐stationary risk premia and econometric mis‐specifications, but some embrace the puzzle as a guide to profitable trading. We suggest there is really no puzzle. A simple model fits the data: forward exchange rates are unbiased predictors of subsequent spot rates. The puzzle arises because the forward rate, the spot rate, and the forward premium follow nearly non‐stationary time series processes. We document these properties with an extended sample and show why they give the delusion of a puzzle.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Roll & Shu Yan, 2000. "An explanation of the forward premium ‘puzzle’," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 6(2), pages 121-148, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:6:y:2000:i:2:p:121-148
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-036X.00117
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    Cited by:

    1. Bugar, Gyöngyi & Maurer, Raimond, 2001. "International equity portfolios and currency hedging : the viewpoint of German and Hungarian investors," Papers 01-10, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    2. Alex Maynard, 2006. "The forward premium anomaly: statistical artefact or economic puzzle? New evidence from robust tests," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 1244-1281, November.
    3. Brennan, Michael J. & Xia, Yihong, 2004. "International Capital Markets and Foreign Exchange Risk," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt53z0s29k, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    4. Spronk, Richard & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2013. "Carry trade and foreign exchange rate puzzles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 17-31.
    5. Rob Hayward & Jens Hölscher, 2017. "The Forward-Discount Puzzle in Central and Eastern Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 59(4), pages 472-497, December.
    6. Sisimonda Kinya Mwanja, 2021. "Effect of operational and market risk exposures on financial performance of DT-Saccos in Kenya," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 10(5), pages 107-118, July.
    7. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," 2006 Meeting Papers 864, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Korn, Olaf, 2009. "Hedging price risk when payment dates are uncertain," CFR Working Papers 07-14, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    9. Matti Suominen & Petri Jylhä, 2009. "Arbitrage Capital and Currency Carry Trade Returns," 2009 Meeting Papers 84, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Fang Liu & Piet Sercu, 2009. "The Forward Puzzle: The Roles of Exchange Rate Regime and Base Currency Strength," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7), pages 1055-1074, July.
    11. Cho, Dooyeon & Chun, Sungju, 2019. "Can structural changes in the persistence of the forward premium explain the forward premium anomaly?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 225-235.
    12. Kellard, Neil & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2008. "Can exchange rate volatility explain persistence in the forward premium?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 714-728, September.
    13. A. Can Inci & Bong Soo Lee, 2014. "Dynamic Relations between Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Changes," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(1), pages 71-106, January.
    14. Xiao-Ming Li, 2014. "Rethinking Long Memory and Structural Breaks in the Forward Premium," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 455-485, September.

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