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Divergence of Opinion Surrounding Extreme Events

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  • Tim Loughran
  • Jennifer Marietta‐Westberg

Abstract

This paper examines the stock market performance of a large sample of new issues (IPOs and SEOs) following an extreme price movement during the first three years after the offering. Strong underperformance follows either a positive or negative (at least +/−15%) one‐day return event. This poor performance cannot be explained by the Fama‐French four‐factor methodology, or by the generally low stock returns of growth firms. Unlike recent issuers, non‐issuers report no poor performance following a similar extreme event using the four‐factor methodology. The extreme event date shows very high levels of turnover, a measure of divergence of opinion. Finally, there is a strong negative linkage between higher levels of divergence of opinion and subsequent stock performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Loughran & Jennifer Marietta‐Westberg, 2005. "Divergence of Opinion Surrounding Extreme Events," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(5), pages 579-601, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:11:y:2005:i:5:p:579-601
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1354-7798.2005.00299.x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Turan G. Bali & Andriy Bodnaruk & Anna Scherbina & Yi Tang, 2018. "Unusual News Flow and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4137-4155, September.
    2. Chin‐Ho Chen, 2021. "Investor sentiment, misreaction, and the skewness‐return relationship," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(9), pages 1427-1455, September.
    3. Tanya Gulati & S. K. Bose & Supriyo Roy, 2017. "Short selling restrictions in 2005–2009 in Indian market and underpricing of initial public offerings," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 116-135, January.
    4. Deepika Bagchee, 2009. "Investors Adjust Expectations Around Sell‐Side Analyst Revisions In Ipo Recommendations," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 53-70, March.
    5. Ran Lu-Andrews & John L. Glascock, 2017. "Liquidity, Price Behavior, and Market-related Events," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 318-351, March.
    6. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-062 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Weiner, Christian, 2005. "The impact of industry classification schemes on financial research," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2005-062, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    8. Alexandridis, George & Antoniou, Antonios & Zhao, Huainan, 2008. "Belief asymmetry and gains from acquisitions," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 443-460, December.
    9. George Alexandridis & Antonios Antoniou & Huainan Zhao, 2006. "Valuation Effects of Short Sale Constraints: the Case of Corporate Takeovers," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(5), pages 747-762, November.
    10. Doukas, John A. & Kim, Chansog & Pantzalis, Christos, 2006. "Divergence of opinion and equity returns under different states of earnings expectations," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 310-331, August.

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