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Investor Sentiment and the Closed‐end Fund Puzzle: Out‐of‐sample Evidence

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  • John A. Doukas
  • Nikolaos T. Milonas

Abstract

In this paper we examine the proposition that small investor sentiment, measured by the change in the discount/premium on closed‐end funds, is an important factor in stock returns. We conduct an out‐of‐sample test of the investor sentiment hypothesis in a market environment that is more likely to be prone to investor sentiment than the USA. We fail to provide supporting evidence for the claim of Lee et al. (1991) that investor sentiment affects the risk of common stocks. Consistent with Elton et al. (1998), who show that investor sentiment does not enter the return generating process, our tests do not detect investor sentiment in a capital market that is more susceptible to small investor sentiment. Our results provide additional support against the claim that investor sentiment represents an independent and systematic asset pricing risk.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. Doukas & Nikolaos T. Milonas, 2004. "Investor Sentiment and the Closed‐end Fund Puzzle: Out‐of‐sample Evidence," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(2), pages 235-266, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:eufman:v:10:y:2004:i:2:p:235-266
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1354-7798.2004.00249.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Heiden & Christian Klein & Bernhard Zwergel, 2013. "Beyond Fundamentals: Investor Sentiment and Exchange Rate Forecasting," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(3), pages 558-578, June.
    2. del Río, Cristina & Ferrer, Elena & López-Arceiz, Francisco J., 2024. "Analyst optimism and market sentiment: Evidence from European corporate sustainability reporters," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Ngoc Bao Vuong, Yoshihisa Suzuki, 2020. "Does Fear has Stronger Impact than Confidence on Stock Returns?The Case of Asia-Pacific Developed Markets," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67, pages 157-175, July.
    4. Harper, Joel T. & Iyer, Subramanian Rama & Nejadmalayeri, Ali, 2017. "Diversification discount and investor sentiment," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 218-236.
    5. Prashant Das & Julia Freybote & Gianluca Marcato, 2015. "An Investigation into Sentiment-Induced Institutional Trading Behavior and Asset Pricing in the REIT Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 160-189, August.
    6. Schmitz, Philipp & Glaser, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2006. "Individual investor sentiment and stock returns - what do we learn from warrant traders?," Papers 06-12, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    7. Flynn, Sean M., 2005. "Noise-trader Risk: Does it Deter Arbitrage, and Is it Priced?," Vassar College Department of Economics Working Paper Series 69, Vassar College Department of Economics.
    8. Gizelis, Demetrios & Chowdhury, Shah, 2016. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 71243, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Lily Qiu & Ivo Welch, 2004. "Investor Sentiment Measures," NBER Working Papers 10794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Deven Bathia & Don Bredin, 2013. "An examination of investor sentiment effect on G7 stock market returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(9), pages 909-937, October.
    11. Rilwan Sakariyahu & Mohamed Sherif & Audrey Paterson & Eleni Chatzivgeri, 2021. "Sentiment‐Apt investors and UK sector returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3321-3351, July.
    12. Keiber, Karl Ludwig & Samyschew, Helene, 2016. "The pricing of sentiment risk in European stock markets," Discussion Papers 384, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    13. Chen, Mei-Ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Hsu, Yi-Chung, 2017. "Investor sentiment and country exchange traded funds: Does economic freedom matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 285-299.
    14. Samiran Jana, 2016. "Effect of Investors’ Sentiment on Indian Stock Market," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(5), pages 1240-1249, October.
    15. Finter, Philipp & Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra & Ruenzi, Stefan, 2010. "The impact of investor sentiment on the German stock market," CFR Working Papers 10-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    16. Christian Diller & Christoph Kaserer, 2009. "What Drives Private Equity Returns?– Fund Inflows, Skilled GPs, and/or Risk?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(3), pages 643-675, June.
    17. Ung, Sze Nie & Gebka, Bartosz & Anderson, Robert D.J., 2023. "Is sentiment the solution to the risk–return puzzle? A (cautionary) note," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    18. Wang, Wenzhao & Su, Chen & Duxbury, Darren, 2021. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Global evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 365-391.
    19. Chan, Kalok & Kot, Hung Wan & Li, Desmond, 2008. "Portfolio concentration and closed-end fund discounts: Evidence from the China market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 129-143, June.
    20. Corredor, Pilar & Ferrer, Elena & Santamaria, Rafael, 2013. "Investor sentiment effect in stock markets: Stock characteristics or country-specific factors?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 572-591.

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