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Who bears the cost of Russia's military draft?

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  • Michael Lokshin
  • Ruslan Yemtsov

Abstract

In this paper we use data from a large nationally representative survey in Russia to empirically estimate the distribution of the burden induced by the military draft. We focus on draft avoidance as a common response to the conscription system ridden by corruption. We develop a simple theoretical model that describes household compliance decisions with respect to enlistment as a function of its pre‐draft welfare. We employ the full information maximum‐likelihood instrumental variable model to estimate the effect of household characteristics on the probability of serving in the army. Our results indicate that the burden of conscription falls excessively on the poor. Poor, low‐educated, rural households are much more likely to have their sons enlisted compared to urban, wealthy and better‐educated families. Using the predicted probability of draft avoidance, we estimate the short‐term direct economic cost of the draft as lost wages of serving conscripts. Our results suggest that losses incurred by the poor are disproportionately large and exceed the statutory rates of personal income taxes.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Lokshin & Ruslan Yemtsov, 2008. "Who bears the cost of Russia's military draft?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 16(3), pages 359-387, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:16:y:2008:i:3:p:359-387
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0351.2008.00326.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Koch & Javier Birchenall, 2016. "Taking versus taxing: an analysis of conscription in a private information economy," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 177-199, June.
    2. Elena Kotyrlo & Elena Varshavskaya, 2022. "Impact of the compulsory military service reform of 2007–2008 on the demand for higher education," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(4), pages 715-735, October.
    3. Ratnikova, Tatiana & Kopytok, Vitovt, 2019. "The effects of compulsory military service on income and wages in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 55, pages 51-72.
    4. Panu Poutvaara & Andreas Wagener, 2011. "The Political Economy of Conscription," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Danko Tarabar & Joshua C. Hall, 2016. "Explaining the worldwide decline in the length of mandatory military service, 1970–2010," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 55-74, July.

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