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How should emerging economies float their currencies?

Author

Listed:
  • Felipe Larraín
  • Andrés Velasco

Abstract

Floating exchange rates seem to be gaining ground in Latin America, East Asia and the transition economies. The recent crises left many economies with no alternative but to float. Others have moved toward floating, searching for greater flexibility and insulation from external shocks. The question for most emerging market economies, then, is no longer to float or not to float, but how to float. Four issues arise in this regard. The first is how to float and have low inflation. The second is whether floating provides as much insulation as conventional theory predicts, especially in the presence of dollarized liabilities. Which leads to the third point: the relationship between the stability of the exchange rate and that of the financial system. The fourth is how to conduct monetary policy under a float, and the role of inflation targeting. We consider each of these points in turn, and conclude that a workable model of how to float seems to be emerging from the so‐far successful experience of countries like Chile and Brazil. It involves the adoption of an inflation target as the main anchor for monetary policy, coupled with a monetary policy reaction function that — aside from reacting to the output gap and other determinants of the inflation rate — reacts also partially to movements in the nominal exchange rate. JEL classification: F3, F4, E4, E5

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe Larraín & Andrés Velasco, 2002. "How should emerging economies float their currencies?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 10(2), pages 365-392, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:etrans:v:10:y:2002:i:2:p:365-392
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0351.00116
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Felipe Larraín & Francisco Parro, 2003. "¿Importa la Opción de Régimen Cambiario? Evidencia para Países en Desarrollo," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(121), pages 635-645.
    2. Felipe Larraín B. & José Tavares, 2003. "Regional Currencies Versus Dollarization: Options for Asia and the Americas," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 35-49.
    3. Heiko Fritz & Hans-Jürgen Wagener, 2003. "Währungspolitische Optionen für die ostmitteleuropäischen EU-Beitrittskandidaten," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 72(4), pages 611-623.
    4. Ilker Domac & Alfonso Mendoza, 2002. "Is there Room for Forex Interventions under Inflation Targeting Framework? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Discussion Papers 0206, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Domac, Ilker & Mendoza, Alfonso, 2004. "Is there room for foreign exchange interventions under an inflation targeting framework ? Evidence from Mexico and Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3288, The World Bank.
    6. Larrain, Felipe & Parro, Francisco, 2006. "Do Exchange Rate Regimes Matter? Evidence for Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 36718, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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