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Ageing, Optimal National Saving and Future Living Standards in Australia

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  • Ross S. Guest
  • Ian M. McDonald

Abstract

Making allowance for the ageing structure of the population, this paper calculates the levels of optimal national saving and future living standards for Australia for the period 1999–2050. For this period, the optimal saving response to the ageing of the Australian population is for national saving to increase from its current level by 2.7 per cent of GDP by the year 2017 and then to decline to the year 2050. The implied growth of living standards is 1.20 per cent per year. Reduced immigration would reduce the rate of growth of living standards but reduced fertility would not.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross S. Guest & Ian M. McDonald, 2001. "Ageing, Optimal National Saving and Future Living Standards in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(237), pages 117-134, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:77:y:2001:i:237:p:117-134
    DOI: 10.1111/1475-4932.00008
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    Cited by:

    1. Tran, Chung, 2018. "Temptation and taxation with elastic labor," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 351-369.
    2. repec:acb:cbeeco:2014-616 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Creina Day & Steve Dowrick, 2004. "Ageing Economics: Human Capital, Productivity and Fertility," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 3-20.
    4. George Hondroyiannis, 2010. "Fertility Determinants and Economic Uncertainty: An Assessment Using European Panel Data," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 33-50, March.
    5. Guest, Ross S. & McDonald, Ian M., 2001. "The volatility of the socially optimal level of investment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 901-928, November.
    6. Mohsen Mehrara, 2011. "Health Expenditure and Economic growth: An ARDL Approach for the Case of Iran," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 3(4), pages 249-256.
    7. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2019. "Facing Demographic Challenges: Pension Cuts Or Tax Hikes?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 625-673, March.
    8. Ian McDonald, 2005. "Intergenerational Equity," Agenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics, vol. 12(1), pages 3-18.
    9. Hondroyiannis, George & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Fertility and output in Europe: new evidence from panel cointegration analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 143-156, March.
    10. Guest, Ross S., 2006. "Population ageing, capital mobility and optimal saving," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 89-102, January.
    11. Hasan, Mohammad S., 2010. "The long-run relationship between population and per capita income growth in China," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 355-372, May.
    12. Guest, Ross S. & McDonald, Ian M., 2007. "Global GDP shares in the 21st century -- An equilibrium approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 859-877, November.
    13. Ross S. Guest & Ian M. McDonald, 2010. "Other‐Regarding Uzawa Preferences And Living Standard Catch‐Up," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 87-115, February.
    14. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2015. "The dynamic fiscal effects of demographic shift: The case of Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-122.
    15. John Freebairn, 2007. "Some Policy Issues in Providing Retirement Incomes," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2007n06, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.

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