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The Classic European Hyperinflations Revisited: Testing the Cagan Model Using a Cointegrated VAR Approach

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  • Engsted, Tom

Abstract

The Cagan model of hyperinflation under rational expectations, no bubbles and stationary velocity shocks has the implication that real balances cointegrate with money growth. In a reexamination of the classic European hyperinflations, I find support for this cointegrating property, which gives evidence against the assumption made in most previous studies that velocity shocks follow a random walk. Based on a cointegrated VAR model, I reject statistically, for four of the six hyperinflations, the exact rational expectations Cagan model; but at the same time I find evidence of a substantial forward-looking element in agents' demand for real balances, in the sense that a large part of the predictable movement in money growth is incorporated in agents' demand for money. Copyright 1994 by The London School of Economics and Political Science.

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  • Engsted, Tom, 1994. "The Classic European Hyperinflations Revisited: Testing the Cagan Model Using a Cointegrated VAR Approach," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 61(243), pages 331-343, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:61:y:1994:i:243:p:331-43
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    Cited by:

    1. Atanas Christev, 2005. "The Hyperinflation Model of Money Demand (or Cagan Revisited): Some New Empirical Evidence from the 1990s," CERT Discussion Papers 0507, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    2. Engsted, Tom, 2002. "Measures of Fit for Rational Expectations Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 301-355, July.
    3. Engsted, Tom, 1996. "The monetary model of the exchange rate under hyperinflation: New encouraging evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 37-44, April.
    4. Engsted, Tom, 2003. "Misspecification versus bubbles in hyperinflation data: comment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 441-451, August.
    5. Caplan, B., 2002. "How does war shock the economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-162, April.
    6. John Ashworth & Lynne Evans, 1998. "Functional form of the demand for real balances in Cagan's hyperinflation model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(12), pages 1617-1623.
    7. Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2000. "A Multivariate I(2) Cointegration Analysis Of German Hyperinflation," Working Papers 0001, University of Crete, Department of Economics, revised 00 Jul 2001.
    8. Choudhry, T., 1998. "Another visit to the Cagan model of money demand: the latest Russian experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 355-376, April.
    9. Mladenovic, Zorica & Petrovic, Pavle, 2010. "Cagan's paradox and money demand in hyperinflation: Revisited at daily frequency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1369-1384, November.
    10. Pavle Petrović & Zorica Mladenović, 2015. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Frequency of Price Adjustment across Different Inflation Regimes," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 409-427, September.
    11. Topal, yavuz Han, 2013. "On the tracks of Zimbabwe’s Hyperinflation: A Quantitative Investigation," MPRA Paper 56117, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Chan, Hing Lin & Lee, Shu Kam & Woo, Kai-Yin, 2003. "An empirical investigation of price and exchange rate bubbles during the interwar European hyperinflations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 327-344.
    13. Luca Benati, 2018. "Cagan s Paradox Revisited," Diskussionsschriften dp1826, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    14. Petrovic, Pavle & Vujosevic, Zorica, 1996. "The monetary dynamics in the Yugoslav hyperinflation of 1991-1993: The Cagan money demand," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 467-483, November.
    15. Engsted, Tom, 1998. "Money Demand During Hyperinflation: Cointegration, Rational Expectations, and the Importance of Money Demand Shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 533-552, July.

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