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Accounting For The Cyclical Dynamics Of Income Shares

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  • ENCHUAN SHAO
  • PEDRO SILOS

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="en"> Over the business cycle, labor's share of output is negatively but weakly correlated with output, and it lags output by about four quarters. Profits' share is strongly pro-cyclical. It neither leads nor lags output, and its volatility is about five times that of output. Those assumptions relate to the structure of aggregate technology and the degree of competition in factor markets. Despite much evidence in favor of time-varying income shares, macroeconomics still lacks models that can account for their time series facts. This article constructs a model that can replicate those facts. We introduce costly entry of firms in a model with frictional labor markets and find a link between the ability of the model to replicate income shares' dynamics and the ability of the model to amplify and propagate shocks. That link is a weak correlation between the real interest rate and output, a fact in U.S. data but a feature that models of aggregate fluctuations have had difficulty achieving. (JEL E3, E25, J3, E24)

Suggested Citation

  • Enchuan Shao & Pedro Silos, 2014. "Accounting For The Cyclical Dynamics Of Income Shares," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 778-795, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:52:y:2014:i:2:p:778-795
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    3. Claire A. Reicher, 2016. "Matching labor’s share in a search and matching model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1229-1254, June.
    4. Jose Barrales-Ruiz, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, Codrina Rada, Daniele Tavani, Rudiger von Arnim, 2020. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2020_07, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    5. Cantore, Cristiano & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph & Yang, Bo, 2015. "CES technology and business cycle fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 133-151.
    6. Tonni, Lorenzo, 2023. "Business cycle and factor income shares: a VAR sign restrictions approach," MPRA Paper 116527, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Klein, Mathias & Winkler, Roland, 2019. "Austerity, inequality, and private debt overhang," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 89-106.
    8. Shao, Enchuan & Silos, Pedro, 2017. "Wealth inequality and employment fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 125-135.
    9. Nikolaos Charalampidis, 2020. "The U.S. Labor Income Share And Automation Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(1), pages 294-318, January.
    10. Andrea Colciago & Lorenza Rossi, 2013. "Firm Entry, Endogenous Markups and the Dynamics of the Labor Share of Income," DNB Working Papers 367, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    11. Sekyu Choi & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2021. "Labour Share and Productivity Dynamics," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2856-2886.
    12. Reicher, Christopher Phillip, 2011. "Matching labor's share in a search and matching model," Kiel Working Papers 1733, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Jose Barrales‐Ruiz & Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Daniele Tavani & Rudiger von Arnim, 2022. "The distributive cycle: Evidence and current debates," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 468-503, April.
    14. Bridgman, Benjamin, 2018. "Is Labor'S Loss Capital'S Gain? Gross Versus Net Labor Shares," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(8), pages 2070-2087, December.
    15. Tonni, Lorenzo, 2022. "Business cycle and factor income shares: a VAR sign restriction approach," MPRA Paper 114586, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Rossi, Lorenza, 2019. "The overshooting of firms’ destruction, banks and productivity shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 136-155.
    17. R. Dixon & G.C. Lim, 2017. "Labor's Share, the Firm's Market Power and TFP," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2017n22, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
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    19. Jong-seok Oh, 2023. "Stabilizing the Macroeconomy with Labor Market Policies," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 39, pages 205-240.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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