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The Cyclical Behavior Of Prices And Relative Prices

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  • GEORGE K. DAVIS
  • BRYCE E. KANAGO

Abstract

Price and output shock correlations provide information concerning macroeconomic shocks. Previous research generally finds small or negative correlations between real gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP deflator shocks but positive correlations between industrial production (IP) and consumer price index (CPI) shocks at short forecast horizons. We show that mismatched price and output correlations may have different magnitudes or signs than matched pairs. Matched and mismatched correlations between disaggregated prices and output from the GDP accounts indicate the procyclical price of nondurables to durables makes correlations between mismatches misleading. Thus, there is reason to be skeptical of results based on IP and the CPI. (JEL E31, E32)

Suggested Citation

  • George K. Davis & Bryce E. Kanago, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior Of Prices And Relative Prices," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 576-586, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:46:y:2008:i:4:p:576-586
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1465-7295.2007.00092.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baxter, Marianne, 1996. "Are Consumer Durables Important for Business Cycles?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 147-155, February.
    2. George Davis & Bryce Kanago, 2002. "The contemporaneous correlation between price shocks and output shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2333-2339.
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    5. den Haan, Wouter J., 2000. "The comovement between output and prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 3-30, August.
    6. den Haan, Wouter J. & Sumner, Steven W., 2004. "The comovement between real activity and prices in the G7," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1333-1347, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bryce Kanago, 2023. "The Comovement Between Forecast Errors for Real GDP and Its Deflator in Six OECD Countries: Did Supply Shocks Become Less Dominant During the Great Moderation?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 149-169, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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