IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/deveco/v56y2018i3p197-220.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Lame‐Duck Effect and Fiscal Policy in China

Author

Listed:
  • Pi‐han Tsai
  • Jianliang Ye

Abstract

The lame‐duck effect, driven by the reelection mechanism in democratic countries, has been widely examined, but few studies of non‐democracies in this area exist. Our paper argues that the age‐limit effect in China may result in a similar lame‐duck effect: an official facing binding age limits has fewer incentives to put effort into work, resulting in contractionary fiscal policies. Using data from 30 Chinese provinces from 1980 to 2006, the empirical analysis finds a provincial leader over official retirement age but still in office has an incentive to decrease tax revenue and expenditures. Specifically, a provincial leader prefers to decrease public spending on capital construction, public goods and agricultural subsidies. Also, a provincial leader's age is negatively correlated with the public spending in his or her jurisdiction. Our empirical results indicate that career concerns of politicians in China created by the age‐limit rules of the cadre management system may hinder local economic prosperity.

Suggested Citation

  • Pi‐han Tsai & Jianliang Ye, 2018. "The Lame‐Duck Effect and Fiscal Policy in China," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 56(3), pages 197-220, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:deveco:v:56:y:2018:i:3:p:197-220
    DOI: 10.1111/deve.12181
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/deve.12181
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/deve.12181?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy Besley & Anne Case, 2003. "Political Institutions and Policy Choices: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 7-73, March.
    2. Petra Persson & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2016. "The Limits Of Career Concerns In Federalism: Evidence From China," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 338-374, April.
    3. Jin, Jing & Zou, Heng-fu, 2005. "Fiscal decentralization, revenue and expenditure assignments, and growth in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 1047-1064, December.
    4. Yingyi Qian & Chenggang Xu, 1993. "Why China's economic reforms differ: the M‐form hierarchy and entry/expansion of the non‐state sector," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 1(2), pages 135-170, June.
    5. Timothy Besley & Anne Case, 1995. "Does Electoral Accountability Affect Economic Policy Choices? Evidence from Gubernatorial Term Limits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 769-798.
    6. Pi-Han Tsai, 2016. "Fiscal incentives and political budget cycles in China," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(6), pages 1030-1073, December.
    7. Margarita Katsimi & Vassilis Sarantides, 2012. "Do elections affect the composition of fiscal policy in developed, established democracies?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 325-362, April.
    8. Lowry, Robert C. & Alt, James E. & Ferree, Karen E., 1998. "Fiscal Policy Outcomes and Electoral Accountability in American States," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 92(4), pages 759-774, December.
    9. Chenggang Xu, 2011. "The Fundamental Institutions of China's Reforms and Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1076-1151, December.
    10. Jin, Hehui & Qian, Yingyi & Weingast, Barry R., 2005. "Regional decentralization and fiscal incentives: Federalism, Chinese style," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1719-1742, September.
    11. Clémence Vergne, 2009. "Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries," Post-Print hal-00368509, HAL.
    12. Eric Maskin & Yingyi Qian & Chenggang Xu, 2000. "Incentives, Information, and Organizational Form," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(2), pages 359-378.
    13. Li, Hongbin & Zhou, Li-An, 2005. "Political turnover and economic performance: the incentive role of personnel control in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1743-1762, September.
    14. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 21-36, March.
    15. Vergne, Clémence, 2009. "Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 63-77, March.
    16. McArthur, John & Marks, Stephen V, 1988. "Constitutent Interest vs. Legislator Ideology: The Role of Political Opportunity Cost," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(3), pages 461-470, July.
    17. Chen, Ye & Li, Hongbin & Zhou, Li-An, 2005. "Relative performance evaluation and the turnover of provincial leaders in China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 421-425, September.
    18. Andrei Shleifer, 1985. "A Theory of Yardstick Competition," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(3), pages 319-327, Autumn.
    19. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01313799 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    21. Qian, Yingyi & Xu, Cheng-Gang, 1993. "Why China's economic reforms differ: the m-form hierarchy and entry/expansion of the non-state sector," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3755, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pi-Han Tsai, 2016. "Fiscal incentives and political budget cycles in China," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(6), pages 1030-1073, December.
    2. Xue, Chang & Zhang, Xiaoyu, 2024. "Gloomy future, gloomy sky: Promotion incentives and pollution in China," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Chen, Shuo & Qiao, Xue & Zhu, Zhitao, 2021. "Chasing or cheating? Theory and evidence on China's GDP manipulation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 657-671.
    4. Chen, Ting & Kung, J.K.-S., 2016. "Do land revenue windfalls create a political resource curse? Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 86-106.
    5. Wang, Li & Menkhoff, Lukas & Schröder, Michael & Xu, Xian, 2019. "Politicians’ promotion incentives and bank risk exposure in China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 63-94.
    6. Zhang, Muyang & Zhou, Guangsu & Fan, Gang, 2020. "Political Control and Economic Inequality: Evidence from Chinese Cities," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    7. Qichun He & Meng Sun, 2018. "Does Fiscal Decentralization Increase the Investment Rate? Evidence from Chinese Panel Data," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 75-101, May.
    8. Jiankun Lu & Pi-Han Tsai, 2017. "Signal and political accountability: environmental petitions in China," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 391-418, November.
    9. He, Qing & Liu, Junyi & Xue, Chang & Zhou, Shaojie, 2020. "Bureaucratic integration and synchronization of regional economic growth: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    10. Hanming Fang & Ming Li & Zenan Wu, 2022. "Tournament-Style Political Competition and Local Protectionism: Theory and Evidence from China," NBER Working Papers 30780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Israel Garcia & Bernd Hayo, 2022. "The Influence of Politicians’ Sex on Political Budget Cycles: An Empirical Analysis of Spanish Municipalities," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202223, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    12. Vortherms, Samantha A., 2019. "Disaggregating China’s local political budget cycles: “Righting” the U," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 95-109.
    13. Yu Bai & Yanjun Li, 2022. "Political tournaments and regional growth‐enhancing policies: Evidence from Chinese prefectures," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(5), pages 1358-1385, November.
    14. Barbara Krug & Alexander Libman, 2015. "Commitment to local autonomy in non-democracies: Russia and China compared," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 221-245, June.
    15. Yang Shen & Jing Wu & Shuping Wu, 2022. "City‐chief turnover and place‐based policy change: Evidence from China," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(5), pages 1296-1328, November.
    16. Longjin Chen & Jian Huang & Jianjun Li, 2017. "Fiscal Decentralization, Satisfaction with Social Services, and Inequality Under the Hukou System," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 132(1), pages 377-394, May.
    17. Jiancai Pi, 2017. "An economic analysis of the political promotion system in China," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 35(2), pages 375-390.
    18. Gupta, Sanjeev & Liu, Estelle X. & Mulas-Granados, Carlos, 2016. "Now or later? The political economy of public investment in democracies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 101-114.
    19. Markevich, Andrei & Zhuravskaya, Ekaterina, 2011. "M-form hierarchy with poorly-diversified divisions: A case of Khrushchev's reform in Soviet Russia," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1550-1560.
    20. Christian Bjørnskov & Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Political Ideology and Economic Freedom Across Canadian Provinces," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 143-166.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:deveco:v:56:y:2018:i:3:p:197-220. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/idegvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.