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A Counterfactual Analysis on Unlimited Surplus Labor in Rural China

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  • Fang Cai
  • Meiyan Wang

Abstract

Using a counterfactual analysis approach, the present paper examines a host of conventional wisdoms relating to issues of farmer, the countryside and agriculture, which are believed to be all originated from the existence of mass surplus laborers in China. When analyzing various sources of statistics, evidence shows that there is no longer a large pool of surplus laborers in rural China as most people believe. Based on this counterfactual result, all related events, such as the direction of agricultural technological changes, the level of comparative productivity of agricultural labor, and the degree of rural‐urban income gap must be reconsidered.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang Cai & Meiyan Wang, 2008. "A Counterfactual Analysis on Unlimited Surplus Labor in Rural China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(1), pages 51-65, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:16:y:2008:i:1:p:51-65
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1749-124X.2008.00099.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jian Zhang & Ashok K. Mishra & Peixin Zhu, 2021. "Land rental markets and labor productivity: Evidence from rural China," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 69(1), pages 93-115, March.
    3. Huanxiu Guo & Sébastien Marchand, 2013. "Is participatory social learning a performance driver for Chinese smallholder farmers?," Working Papers halshs-00878886, HAL.
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    5. Masahiko Aoki, 2011. "The Five-Phases of Economic Development and Institutional Evolution in China and Japan," Development Economics Working Papers 23196, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    6. Qian Wang & Qiao-Mei Liang, 2015. "Will a carbon tax hinder China’s efforts to improve its primary income distribution status?," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(8), pages 1407-1436, December.
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    9. Tomoyuki Fukumoto & Ichiro Muto, 2012. "Rebalancing China's Economic Growth: Some Insights from Japan's Experience," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 20(1), pages 62-82, January.
    10. Zhang, Xiaobo & Yang, Jin & Wang, Shenglin, 2011. "China has reached the Lewis turning point," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 542-554.
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    12. Zhang, Jian & Mishra, Ashok K. & Zhu, Peixin & Li, Xiaoshun, 2020. "Land rental market and agricultural labor productivity in rural China: A mediation analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    13. Ettore Dorrucci & Gabor Pula & Daniel Santabárbara, 2013. "China’s economic growth and rebalancing," Occasional Papers 1301, Banco de España.
    14. Chen, Qin & Song, Zheng, 2014. "Accounting for China's urbanization," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 485-494.
    15. Xiaobing Wang & Nick Weaver, 2013. "Surplus labour and Lewis turning points in China," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, February.
    16. Huanxiu GUO & Mary-Françoise RENARD, 2013. "Social activity and collective action for agricultural innovation: a case study of New Rural Reconstruction in China," Working Papers 201306, CERDI.
    17. Mary-Françoise Renard & Huanxiu Guo, 2013. "Social activity and collective action for agricultural innovation: a case study of New Rural Reconstruction in China," Working Papers halshs-00802119, HAL.
    18. Shang-Jin Wei & Zhuan Xie & Xiaobo Zhang, 2017. "From "Made in China" to "Innovated in China": Necessity, Prospect, and Challenges," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 49-70, Winter.
    19. Cai, Fang & Wang, Meiyan, 2010. "Growth and structural changes in employment in transition China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 71-81, March.
    20. Zhang, Jian & Mishra, Ashok K. & Zhu, Peixin, 2023. "Land Markets and Labor Productivity: Empirical Evidence from China," IZA Discussion Papers 16575, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Gordon Menzies & Xiaolin Xiao, 2012. "Non-traded Factor Appreciation in China," Working Paper Series 2, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    22. Ettore Dorrucci & Gabor Pula & Daniel Santabárbara, 2013. "China’s economic growth and rebalancing," Occasional Papers 1301, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    23. Dong, Qi & Murakami, Tomoaki & Nakashima, Yasuhiro, 2021. "Induced Bias of Technological Change in Agriculture and Structural Transformation: A Translog Cost Function Analysis of Chinese Cereal Production," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315373, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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