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Food Price Bubbles and Government Intervention: Is China Different?

Author

Listed:
  • Jian Li
  • Chongguang Li
  • Jean-Paul Chavas

Abstract

The last decade has witnessed different price trajectories in the international and Chinese agricultural commodity markets. This paper compares and contrasts these dynamic patterns between markets from the perspective of price bubbles. A newly developed right-tailed unit root testing procedure is applied to detect price bubbles in the CBOT and Chinese agricultural futures market during the period 2005-2014. Results show that Chinese markets experienced less prominent speculative bubbles than the international markets for its high self-sufficiency commodities (wheat and corn), but not for low self-sufficiency commodities (soybean). The difference in price behavior is attributed to differences in market intelligence, and to Chinese agricultural policies related to trade as well as domestic government policies. Besides, it discusses challenges to the sustainability of the stable price trajectory in Chinese markets.
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Suggested Citation

  • Jian Li & Chongguang Li & Jean-Paul Chavas, 2017. "Food Price Bubbles and Government Intervention: Is China Different?," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 65(1), pages 135-157, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:65:y:2017:i:1:p:135-157
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/cjag.2017.65.issue-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Wen, Jun & Khalid, Samia & Mahmood, Hamid & Zakaria, Muhammad, 2021. "Symmetric and asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty on food prices in China: A new evidence," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Ma, Richie Ruchuan & Xiong, Tao, 2021. "Price explosiveness in nonferrous metal futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 75-90.
    3. Jian Li & Jean‐Paul Chavas & Chongguang Li, 2022. "The dynamic effects of price support policy on price volatility: The case of the rice market in China," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(2), pages 307-320, March.
    4. Lai, Tianyun & Hu, Zhepeng, 2024. "Nitrogen Fertilizer Price Bubbles and Contributing Factors: Evidence from the Chinese Urea Fertilizer Market," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343535, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Fatima, Hira & Ahmed, Mumtaz, 2019. "Testing for Exuberance Behavior in Agricultural Commodities of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 95304, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jie Lyu & Xiaolei Li, 2019. "Effectiveness and Sustainability of Grain Price Support Policies in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-13, April.
    7. Ye Chen & Jian Li & Qiyuan Li, 2023. "Seemingly Unrelated Regression Estimation for VAR Models with Explosive Roots," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 910-937, August.
    8. Kübra Akyol Özcan, 2023. "Food Price Bubbles: Food Price Indices of Turkey, the FAO, the OECD, and the IMF," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-21, June.
    9. Xiaokang Hou & Shah Fahad & Peipei Zhao & Beibei Yan & Tianjun Liu, 2022. "The Trilogy of the Chinese Apple Futures Market: Price Discovery, Risk-Hedging and Cointegration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-16, October.
    10. Zhang, Youwang & Li, Chogguang & Xu, Yuanyuan & Li, Jian, 2020. "An attribution analysis of soybean price volatility in China: global market connectedness or energy market transmission?," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 22(1), July.
    11. Xiangjun Wu & Juan Xu, 2021. "Drivers of food price in China: A heterogeneous panel SVAR approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(1), pages 67-79, January.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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