IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/canjag/v57y2009i4p575-600.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Analysis of Farmland Investment and Financial Management

Author

Listed:
  • Heman D. Lohano
  • Robert P. King

Abstract

This paper develops a multiperiod investment portfolio model that includes risky farmland, risky and risk‐free nonfarm assets, and debt financing on farmland in the presence of transaction costs and credit constraints. The model is formulated as a stochastic continuous‐state dynamic programming problem, and is solved numerically for Southwestern Minnesota, USA. Results show that optimal investment decisions are dynamic and take into account the future decisions due to uncertainty, partial irreversibility, and the option to wait. The optimal policy includes ranges of inaction, states where the optimal policy in the current year is to wait. The risk‐averse farmer makes a lower investment in risky farmland reflecting risk‐avoiding behavior. We find that, in addition to risk aversion, the length of the planning horizon affects risk‐avoiding behavior in investment decisions. In contrast to a static model, changes in the riskiness of returns affect optimal investment decisions even when the decision maker is risk neutral. Finally, we find that higher debt financing on farmland is optimal when risky nonfarm assets can be included in the optimal investment portfolio and that the probability of exiting farming increases with the risky nonfarm investment. Dans le présent article, nous avons élaboré un modèle de portefeuille multipériode composé d'actifs agricoles risqués (terres), d'actifs non agricoles risqués et sans risque ainsi que de financement par emprunt de terres comprenant des coûts de transaction et des contraintes de crédit. Le modèle a été formulé comme un problème de programmation dynamique stochastique en temps continu et a été résolu de façon numérique pour le sud‐ouest du Minnesota, aux États‐Unis. Les résultats ont montré que les décisions optimales d'investissement sont dynamiques et qu’elles tiennent compte des décisions futures en raison de l'incertitude, de l'irréversibilité partielle et du choix d'attendre. La politique optimale inclut des plages d'inaction et des situations où la politique optimale de l'année en cours doit attendre. L'agriculteur risquophobe investit peu dans des actifs fonciers risqués ce qui traduit un comportement d'évitement des risques. Nous sommes arrivés à la conclusion que la longueur de l'horizon de planification, en plus de l'aversion pour le risque, influe sur le comportement d'évitement des risques au moment de prendre des décisions d'investissement. Contrairement au modèle statique, les changements dans les risques de rendements influent sur les décisions optimales d'investissement même si le décideur est indifférent au risque. Finalement, nous avons trouvé que le financement par emprunt pour des terres agricoles est optimal lorsqu’il est possible d'inclure des actifs non agricoles risqués dans le portefeuille optimal et que la probabilité de quitter l'agriculture augmente en présence d'investissements non agricoles risqués.

Suggested Citation

  • Heman D. Lohano & Robert P. King, 2009. "A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Analysis of Farmland Investment and Financial Management," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(4), pages 575-600, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:57:y:2009:i:4:p:575-600
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1744-7976.2009.01171.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7976.2009.01171.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1744-7976.2009.01171.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scott R. Jeffrey & Vernon R. Eidman, 1991. "The Application of Multivariate Stochastic Dominance Criteria to Agricultural Economic Problems," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 39(2), pages 193-209, July.
    2. Collins, Robert A. & Karp, Larry S., 1993. "Lifetime Leverage Choice For Proprietary Farmers In A Dynamic Stochastic Environment," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 18(2), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Arlo J. Minden, 1968. "Dynamic Programming: A Tool For Farm Firm Growth Research," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 16(2), pages 38-45, July.
    4. Schnitkey, Gary D. & Taylor, C. Robert & Barry, Peter J., 1989. "Evaluating Farmland Investments Considering Dynamic Stochastic Returns And Farmland Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(01), pages 1-14, July.
    5. Olson, Kent D. & Westman, Lorin L., 1991. "Southeastern Minnesota Farm Business Management Association 1990 Annual Report," Economic Reports 13076, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    6. Oscar R. Burt, 1986. "Econometric Modeling of the Capitalization Formula for Farmland Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(1), pages 10-26.
    7. Burt, Oscar R. & Taylor, C. Robert, 1989. "Reduction Of State Variable Dimension In Stochastic Dynamic Optimization Models Which Use Time-Series Data," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(2), pages 1-10, December.
    8. John R. Brake, 1983. "Financial Crisis in Agriculture: Discussion," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 65(5), pages 953-954.
    9. Bera, Anil K. & Jarque, Carlos M., 1981. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals : Monte Carlo Evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 313-318.
    10. Taff, Steven J., 2008. "Minnesota Farm Real Estate Sales: 1990-2007," Staff Papers 36776, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    11. King, Robert P. & Lohano, Heman D., 2006. "Accuracy of Numerical Solution to Dynamic Programming Models," Staff Papers 14230, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    12. Baker, C.B. & Barry, Peter J. & Lee, Warren F. & Olson, Carl E. & Hochman, Eithan & Rausser, Gordon S. & Kottke, Marvin W., 1977. "Economic Growth of the Agricultural Firm," Western Region Archives 260636, Western Region - Western Extension Directors Association (WEDA).
    13. Brekke, Jon & Tao, Hung-Lin & Raup, Philip M., 1993. "The Minnesota Rural Real Estate Market In 1992," Economic Reports 13010, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    14. Jean-Paul Chavas & Alban Thomas, 1999. "A Dynamic Analysis of Land Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(4), pages 772-784.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Browne, Natalie & Kingwell, Ross & Behrendt, Ralph & Eckard, Richard, 2013. "The relative profitability of dairy, sheep, beef and grain farm enterprises in southeast Australia under selected rainfall and price scenarios," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 35-44.
    2. James Nolan & Dawn Parker & G. Cornelis Van Kooten & Thomas Berger, 2009. "An Overview of Computational Modeling in Agricultural and Resource Economics," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 57(4), pages 417-429, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lohano, Heman Das, 2002. "A Stochastic Dynamic Programming Analysis of Farmland Investment and Financial Management," Faculty and Alumni Dissertations 309035, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    2. King, Robert P. & Lohano, Heman D., 2006. "Accuracy of Numerical Solution to Dynamic Programming Models," Staff Papers 14230, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    3. Katchova, Ani L. & Sherrick, Bruce J. & Barry, Peter J., 2002. "The Effects Of Risk On Farmland Values And Returns," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19660, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    4. B. James Deaton & Chad Lawley, 2022. "A survey of literature examining farmland prices: A Canadian focus," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 70(2), pages 95-121, June.
    5. Guiling, Pam & Brorsen, B. Wade & Doye, Damona G., 2007. "How Much Influence Does Recreation Have on Agricultural Land Values?," 2007 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2007, Mobile, Alabama 34947, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    6. Schnitkey, Gary D. & Taylor, C. Robert, 1987. "Conventional Capital Budgeting Versus Stochastic Dynamic Analysis Of Optimal Farmland Purchase And Sell Decisions," Illinois Agricultural Economics Staff Paper 244662, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
    7. Guiling, Pamela & Doye, Damona & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2009. "Why Has the Price of Pasture Increased Relative to the Price of Cropland?," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2009, pages 1-13.
    8. Ifft, Jennifer & Nickerson, Cynthia J. & Kuethe, Todd H. & You, Chengxia, 2012. "Potential Farm-Level Effects of Eliminating Direct Payments," Economic Information Bulletin 139809, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    9. Anwar Hussain & Ian A. Munn & Jerry Brashier & W. Daryl Jones & James E. Henderson, 2013. "Capitalization of Hunting Lease Income into Northern Mississippi Forestland Values," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 89(1), pages 137-153.
    10. He, Yong, 2018. "Can the visible and invisible hands coexist in land pricing?," MPRA Paper 88770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2020. "Modeling US historical time-series prices and inflation using alternative long-memory approaches," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 1491-1511, April.
    12. Vijay Varadi & C. Vanlalramsanga, 2012. "Assessment of the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2012_06, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    13. Salois, Matthew & Moss, Charles, 2010. "An Information Approach to the Dynamics in Farm Income: Implications for Farmland Markets," MPRA Paper 26850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Ahmad M. Talafha & Emmanuel Thompson, 2017. "On Valuing European Option: VAR-COVAR Approach," Journal of Finance and Investment Analysis, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(3), pages 1-1.
    15. Melina Dritsaki & Chaido Dritsaki, 2023. "R&D Expenditures on Innovation: A Panel Cointegration Study of the E.U. Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-35, April.
    16. repec:ers:journl:v:xxiv:y:2021:i:4:p:370-395 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Marc Lavoie & Gabriel Rodriguez & Mario Seccareccia, 2004. "Similitudes and Discrepancies in Post-Keynesian and Marxist Theories of Investment: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 127-149.
    18. Schnitkey, Gary D. & Taylor, C. Robert & Barry, Peter J., 1989. "Evaluating Farmland Investments Considering Dynamic Stochastic Returns And Farmland Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(01), pages 1-14, July.
    19. Nedved, Martin & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2023. "Safe havens for Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    20. Sugra Humbatova & Afag Huseyn & Natig Gadim-Oglu Hajiyev, 2023. "Impact of Oil Factor on Investment: The Case of Azerbaijan," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 129-148, March.
    21. Gustafson, Cole R., 1989. "A Stochastic Dominance Analysis of Alternative Land Control Strategies in the Red River Valley," WAEA/ WFEA Conference Archive (1929-1995) 244905, Western Agricultural Economics Association.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:canjag:v:57:y:2009:i:4:p:575-600. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/caefmea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.