IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/buecrs/v57y2005i4p369-389.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stochastic Unit Roots in the Capital Asset Pricing Model?

Author

Listed:
  • Gawon Yoon

Abstract

Evidence is provided in this article for the existence of a stochastic unit root (STUR) in a proxy for the US risk‐free interest rate, in preference to a standard fixed unit root. The implications of the existence of the STUR, on estimating and testing the capital asset pricing model, are also examined through simulations. The effects of the STUR in the risk‐free interest rate, on conducting unit root tests for excess market returns and estimating the betas of assets, are found to be qualitatively similar to those of the standard (fixed) unit root. Thus, this article confirms the conjecture of Markellos and Mills (2001, Applied Economics Letters, 8, pp. 499–502) on the risk‐free interest rate following near‐integrated processes, at least for a STUR.

Suggested Citation

  • Gawon Yoon, 2005. "Stochastic Unit Roots in the Capital Asset Pricing Model?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 369-389, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:57:y:2005:i:4:p:369-389
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0307-3378.2005.00228.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0307-3378.2005.00228.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.0307-3378.2005.00228.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yoon, Gawon, 2003. "A simple model that generates stylized facts of returns," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt0q3576s4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    2. Raphael Markellos & Terence Mills, 2003. "Asset pricing dynamics," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 533-556.
    3. Raphael Markellos & Terence Mills, 2001. "Unit roots in the CAPM?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 499-502.
    4. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66.
    5. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M & Tremayne, A R, 1996. "Can Economic Time Series Be Differenced to Stationarity?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(4), pages 435-446, October.
    6. Karim Maher Abadir, 2004. "Cointegration Theory, Equilibrium and Disequilibrium Economics," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(1), pages 60-71, January.
    7. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December.
    9. Shiqing Ling, 2004. "Estimation and testing stationarity for double‐autoregressive models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(1), pages 63-78, February.
    10. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Show-Lin, 1997. "Can nominal exchange rates be differenced to stationarity?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 397-402, September.
    11. Granger, Clive W. J. & Swanson, Norman R., 1997. "An introduction to stochastic unit-root processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 35-62, September.
    12. repec:bla:obuest:v:64:y:2002:i:4:p:381-97 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Robert Sollis & Paul Newbold & Stephen Leybourne, 2000. "Stochastic unit roots modelling of stock price indices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 311-315.
    14. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
    15. Anderson, H.M. & Granger, C.W.G. & Hall, A.D., 1990. "Treasury Bi;; Yield Curves And Cointegration," Papers 215, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
    16. Brendan McCabe & Stephen Leybourne & David Harris, 2003. "Testing for Stochastic Cointegration and Evidence for Present Value Models," Econometrics 0311009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. A. M. Robert Taylor & Dick van Dijk, 2002. "Can Tests for Stochastic Unit Roots Provide Useful Portmanteau Tests for Persistence?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 381-397, September.
    18. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    19. J. M. Marriott & J. C. Naylor & A. R. Tremayne, 2003. "Exploring economic time series: a Bayesian graphical approach," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 124-145, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "Nonlinear mean reversion in real exchange rates: threshold autoregressive models and stochastic unit root processes," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 797-804.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yoon, Gawon, 2005. "Has the U.S. economy really become less correlated with that of the rest of the world?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 147-158, January.
    2. Francq, Christian & Makarova, Svetlana & Zakoi[diaeresis]an, Jean-Michel, 2008. "A class of stochastic unit-root bilinear processes: Mixing properties and unit-root test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 312-326, January.
    3. Lorenzo Trapani, 2021. "Testing for strict stationarity in a random coefficient autoregressive model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 220-256, April.
    4. Yoon, Gawon, 2004. "On the existence of expected utility with CRRA under STUR," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 219-224, May.
    5. Distaso, Walter, 2008. "Testing for unit root processes in random coefficient autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 581-609, January.
    6. Yoon, Gawon, 2016. "Stochastic unit root processes: Maximum likelihood estimation, and new Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 725-732.
    7. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2008. "Non-stationarity and Non-linearity in Stock Prices: Evidence from the OECD Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(11), pages 1-11.
    8. Lee, Hwa-Taek & Yoon, Gawon, 2007. "Does Purchasing Power Parity Hold Sometimes? Regime Switching in Real Exchange Rates," Economics Working Papers 2007-24, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    9. Granger, Clive W.J., 2005. "The past and future of empirical finance: some personal comments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 35-40.
    10. Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard & Vroomen, Bjorn, 2004. "Forecasting unemployment using an autoregression with censored latent effects parameters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 255-271.
    11. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    12. Jacek Kwiatkowski, 2006. "A Bayesian Estimation and Testing of STUR Models with Application to Polish Financial Time Series," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 7, pages 151-160.
    13. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "Nonlinear mean reversion in real exchange rates: threshold autoregressive models and stochastic unit root processes," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 797-804.
    14. Jonathan Manton & Anton Muscatelli & Vikram Krishnamurthy & Stan Hurn, "undated". "Modelling Stock Market Excess Returns by Markov Modulated Gaussian Noise," Working Papers 9806, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    15. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Paap, R., 1998. "Modelling asymmetric persistence over the business cycle," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9852, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    16. Muriel, Nelson & González-Farías, Graciela, 2018. "Testing the null of difference stationarity against the alternative of a stochastic unit root: A new test based on multivariate STUR," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 7(C), pages 46-62.
    17. Gawon Yoon, 2010. "Nonlinear mean-reversion to purchasing power parity: exponential smooth transition autoregressive models and stochastic unit root processes," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 489-496.
    18. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Lin, Shih-Mo, 2014. "Non-linear dynamics in international resource markets: Evidence from regime switching approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 233-247.
    19. Palandri, Alessandro, 2024. "Reconciling interest rates evidence with theory: Rejecting unit roots when the HD(1) is a competing alternative," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    20. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:57:y:2005:i:4:p:369-389. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0307-3378 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.