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The Term Structure of Interest Rates in the UK

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  • MacDonald, Ronald
  • Speight, Alan E H

Abstract

This paper presents new tests of the efficient markets view of the interest rate term structure utilizing recently developed cointegration methodology in a bivariate autoregressive system consisting of the "spread" between long and short interest rates and the change in the Treasury Bill rate. The efficient markets restrictions on the bivariate autoregressive system are supported by U.K. data from 1963:1 to 1987:1. Further support is obtained from som e simple Granger-causality tests. However, volatility statistics give rather mixed results. On balance, the authors' findings suggest a risk-adjusted expectations approach to the term structure. Copyright 1988 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Board of Trustees of the Bulletin of Economic Research

Suggested Citation

  • MacDonald, Ronald & Speight, Alan E H, 1988. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in the UK," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 287-299, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:40:y:1988:i:4:p:287-99
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    Cited by:

    1. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2011. "The term structure of interest rates, the expectations hypothesis and international financial integration: Evidence from Asian economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 679-689, October.
    2. Magdalena Massot Perelló & Juan M. Nave Pineda, 2003. "La hipótesis de las expectativas en el largo plazo: evidencia en el mercado español de deuda pública," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 27(3), pages 533-564, September.
    3. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2015. "On The Term Structure of South African Interest Rates: Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," MPRA Paper 67681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ross Guest & Alan McLean, 1998. "New evidence on the expectations theory of the term structure of Australian Commonwealth Government Treasury yields," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 81-87.
    5. Cuthbertson, Keith, 1996. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: The UK Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(436), pages 578-592, May.
    6. Stefan Gerlach, 1996. "Monetary policy and the behaviour of interest rates: are long rates excessively volatile?," BIS Working Papers 34, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Holmes, Mark J & Pentecost, Eric J, 1997. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Financial Integration in the ERM," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(3), pages 237-247, July.
    8. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2017. "Asymmetries in Yield Curves: Some Empirical Evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 79155, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2017. "On the term structure of South African interest rates: cointegration and threshold adjustment," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(4), pages 300-321.
    10. Anonymous, 1993. "Expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 56, December.
    11. Kamae, Hiroshi, 1989. "Wald Tests of the Pure Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Hitotsubashi Journal of commerce and management, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 24(1), pages 53-63, December.
    12. Fraser, Patricia, 1995. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between UK Treasury Bills and the Term Structure of Certificates of Deposit," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(2), pages 143-160, April.
    13. A. Arize & J. Malindretos & Z. Obi, 2002. "Long- and short-term interest rates in 19 countries: Tests of cointegration and parameter instability," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 30(2), pages 105-120, June.
    14. Kuo, Shew-Huei, 2000. "An examination of the evolving relationship between interest rates of different maturities in Japan, and test of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure to ascertain the feasibility of using," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000014910, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. M. Isabel Martínez-Serna & Eliseo Navarro-Arribas, 2002. "El modelo de McCallum. Evidencia empírica en la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(2), pages 323-357, May.
    16. Brooks, Chris & Rew, Alistair G., 2002. "Testing for non-stationarity and cointegration allowing for the possibility of a structural break: an application to EuroSterling interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 65-90, January.
    17. Kakali Kanjilal, 2014. "Rational expectation hypothesis: empirical evidence from government debt market in India," International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 353-370.
    18. Shen Chung-Hua, 1998. "The Term Structure of Taiwan Money Market Rates And Rational Expectation," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 105-119.
    19. Hurn, A Stan & Moody, Terry & Muscatelli, V Anton, 1995. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in the London Interbank Market," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 419-436, July.

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