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Monetary Policy in Australia: The Conflict between Short‐Term and Medium‐Term Objectives

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  • Peter J. Stemp
  • C. W. Murphy

Abstract

This article argues that the recent implementation of monetary policy in Australia has been dominated by the response to a large range of unanticipated shocks. In the process of trying to minimise the adverse effects of such shocks, considerable uncertainty has been created about likely outcomes in the medium term. This makes medium‐term objectives harder to achieve. Taking the reduction of inflation as an example of an appropriate medium‐term objective, simulations are presented using the Murphy model of the Australian economy. The simulations demonstrate that a tightening of monetary policy will reduce inflation more slowly if private agents believe that the tightening is unlikely to be sustained for long. Under uncertainty, monetary policy will have to be tighter and real GDP significantly lower to achieve a given reduction in inflation. A confingency rule of medium complexity is suggested as one way in which appropriate medium‐term objectives might be achieved while allowing some flexibility to react to unexpected outcomes in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter J. Stemp & C. W. Murphy, 1991. "Monetary Policy in Australia: The Conflict between Short‐Term and Medium‐Term Objectives," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 24(2), pages 20-31, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecr:v:24:y:1991:i:2:p:20-31
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8462.1991.tb00386.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R.A. Johnston, 1987. "Monetary Policy - The Lessons of History," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 87-13, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    2. Doug McTaggart & Colin Rogers, 1990. "Monetary Policy and the Terms of Trade: A Case for Monetary Base Control in Australia?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 23(2), pages 38-49, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter J Stemp, 1997. "The Australian Government's Current Approach to Monetary Policy: An Evaluation," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe (ed.),Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Stephen Grenville, 1997. "The Evolution of Monetary Policy: From Money Targets to Inflation Targets," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe (ed.),Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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