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Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability in Advanced Economies

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  • Alan J Auerbach

Abstract

With the Great Recession leaving nearly all advanced economies with substantially higher debt–gross domestic product ratios, this paper re-evaluates the long-term fiscal sustainability of these economies based on current estimates of their current-policy fiscal trajectories. Through measuring fiscal imbalance, we find that for many countries, short-term fiscal measures such as the debt–gross domestic product ratio and current budget deficits as a share of gross domestic product bear little relationship to the sustainability of policy. The longer-term challenges these countries face are related much more to the future fiscal challenge of growing primary deficits, associated with the cost of providing pensions and health care in the face of growing old-age dependency ratios. While focusing on managing the short-term debt burden may help avoid crises like the one being played out in Greece, attention and policy actions must eventually turn to the longer-term fiscal problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan J Auerbach, 2016. "Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability in Advanced Economies," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 142-154, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiaps:v:3:y:2016:i:2:p:142-154
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/app5.131
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan J Auerbach, 2011. "Long-term fiscal sustainability in major economies," BIS Working Papers 361, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Alan J. Auerbach, 2008. "Federal Budget Rules: The US Experience," NBER Working Papers 14288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Xavier Debrun & Tidiane Kinda, 2017. "Strengthening Post‐Crisis Fiscal Credibility: Fiscal Councils on the Rise – A New Dataset," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 667-700, December.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2013. "The Design of Fiscal Adjustments," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 19-68.
    5. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 45471, Congressional Budget Office.
    6. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "The 2014 Long-Term Budget Outlook," Reports 45471, Congressional Budget Office.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lars P. Feld & Ekkehard A. Köhler & Julia Wolfinger, 2020. "Modeling fiscal sustainability in dynamic macro-panels with heterogeneous effects: evidence from German federal states," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 215-239, February.
    2. Shiro Armstrong & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2016. "Fiscal Sustainability in Japan," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 235-243, May.
    3. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in Aging Societies: Evidence from Euro Area Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-20, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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