IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/asiaps/v11y2024i3ne400.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Political Relations Colour Chinaʼs Trade With Southeast Asian Partners? A Vector Autoregression Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Brandon Harrington

Abstract

This paper investigates whether and how export growth to China varies following shocks in bilateral political relations between China and six Southeast Asian countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam—between 2000 and 2019. High‐frequency news data is used to quantify bilateral political relations between each of the six countries and China. Then, a net cooperation index, plus separate indices of political cooperation and conflict, are placed in an augmented gravity model of trade situated in a vector autoregression framework alongside real exchange rate and industrial production variables to examine the short‐ (months) and long‐run (years) effects of shocks to bilateral political relations on each countryʼs exports growth to China. The results reveal that political relations with China played a role in Thailandʼs and Vietnamʼs exports growth to China but not in Indonesiaʼs, Malaysiaʼs, the Philippinesʼ and Singaporeʼs, and contribute new findings to the literature on politics and trade. Code and data for the analysis is available at: https://github.com/tradepolsrepository/tradepols.git.

Suggested Citation

  • Brandon Harrington, 2024. "Do Political Relations Colour Chinaʼs Trade With Southeast Asian Partners? A Vector Autoregression Approach," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiaps:v:11:y:2024:i:3:n:e400
    DOI: 10.1002/app5.400
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/app5.400
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/app5.400?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:asiaps:v:11:y:2024:i:3:n:e400. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=2050-2680 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.