IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/asiapr/v3y2008i1p67-82.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Shares of the Rich and the Rest in the World Economy: Income Divergence Between Nations, 1820–2030

Author

Listed:
  • Angus MADDISON

Abstract

This paper analyses the forces determining per capita income levels of nations over the past millennium and the prospects to 2030. In the year 1000, Asian countries were in the lead. By 1820, per capita gross domestic product in Western Europe and the USA was twice the Asian average. The divergence had grown much bigger by 1950, but by the 1970s, several Asian countries – Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore – had achieved considerable catch‐up. Since then, there has been a major surge in China and the beginning of a similar phenomenon in India. As a result, the Asian share of world income has risen steadily and, by 2030, will be fairly close to what it was in 1820. I conclude by comparing my projections for 2030 with those of Goldman Sachs, Perkins and Rawski, and Fogel.

Suggested Citation

  • Angus MADDISON, 2008. "Shares of the Rich and the Rest in the World Economy: Income Divergence Between Nations, 1820–2030," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 3(1), pages 67-82, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:3:y:2008:i:1:p:67-82
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1748-3131.2008.00090.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-3131.2008.00090.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1748-3131.2008.00090.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pranab Bardhan, 2006. "Awakening Giants, Feet of Clay," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 1(1), pages 1-17, April.
    2. Angus Maddison, 2005. "Measuring And Interpreting World Economic Performance 1500–2001," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(1), pages 1-35, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Frédéric Gannon & Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2016. "Aging, international capital flows and long run convergence," Working Papers hal-03475630, HAL.
    2. Yumiko Okamoto, 2014. "Japan's Innovation Strategy toward Asia," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 10(1), pages 77-108, March.
    3. Dominik Paprotny, 2021. "Convergence Between Developed and Developing Countries: A Centennial Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 193-225, January.
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5mcsclpvpm8lsadm6engnbebt7 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Takatoshi ITO & Akira KOJIMA & Colin McKENZIE & Shujiro URATA, 2009. "Editors’ Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, June.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5mcsclpvpm8lsadm6engnbebt7 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jing Wang & Dana Medianu & John Whalley, 2011. "The Contribution of China, India and Brazil to Narrowing North-South Differences in GDP/capita, World Trade Shares, and Market Capitalization," NBER Working Papers 17681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6dhper3pho8nspmsluhrt4lcd8 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Gannon, Frédéric & Le Garrec, Gilles & Touzé, Vincent, 2020. "The South's demographic transition and international capital flows in a financially integrated world economy," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 1-45, March.
    10. Angus Maddison, 2008. "The West and the Rest in the World Economy: 1000–2030," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 9(4), pages 75-100, October.
    11. Duarte Leite & Óscar Afonso & Sandra Silva, 2014. "A tale of two countries: a directed technical change approach," FEP Working Papers 539, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    12. Jonathan Haskel, 2016. "Do Poor Countries Catch Up to Rich Countries? Review Article on Productivity Convergence: Theory and Evidence by Edward Wolff," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 30, pages 111-117, Spring.
    13. Rotarou, Elena S. & Sakellariou, Dikaios, 2017. "Neoliberal reforms in health systems and the construction of long-lasting inequalities in health care: A case study from Chile," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(5), pages 495-503.
    14. Galor, Oded & Munshi, Kaivan & Wilson, Nicolas, 2013. "Inclusive Institutions and Long-Run Misallocation," MPRA Paper 51643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Angus Maddison, 2009. "L?Occidente e il Resto del Mondo nell?economia mondiale: un?interpretazione Maddisoniana e Malthusiana dal 1000 al 2030," ARGOMENTI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2009(27), pages 7-30.
    16. Marcus NOLAND, 2008. "Comment on “Shares of the Rich and the Rest in the World Economy: Income Divergence Between Nations, 1820–2030”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 3(1), pages 83-84, June.
    17. TN Srinivasan, 2013. "Trends and Impacts of Real and Financial Globalization in the People's Republic of China and India since the 1980s," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 30(1), pages 1-30, March.
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6dhper3pho8nspmsluhrt4lcd8 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Angus Maddison, 2009. "L?Occidente e il Resto del Mondo nell?economia mondiale: un?interpretazione Maddisoniana e Malthusiana dal 1000 al 2030," ARGOMENTI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2009(27), pages 7-30.
    2. Rok Spruk & Mitja Kovac, 2018. "Inefficient Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 9(2).
    3. Jordà, Òscar & Schularick, Moritz & Taylor, Alan M., 2015. "Leveraged bubbles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 1-20.
    4. Bluedorn, John C. & Valentinyi, Akos & Vlassopoulos, Michael, 2009. "The Long-Lived Effects of Historic Climate on the Wealth of Nations," MPRA Paper 18701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Òscar Jordá & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Sovereigns Versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-79.
    6. Cormac Ó Gráda, 2005. "You Take the High Road and I’ll Take the Low Road - Economic Success and Wellbeing in the Longer Run," Working Papers 200510, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    7. Wei Li & Taye Mengistae & Lixin Colin Xu, 2011. "Diagnosing Development Bottlenecks: China and India," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73, pages 722-752, December.
    8. Diego A. Comin & Mikhail Dmitriev & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2012. "The Spatial Diffusion of Technology," NBER Working Papers 18534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Chen, Xiude & Qin, Quande & Wei, Y.-M., 2016. "Energy productivity and Chinese local officials’ promotions: Evidence from provincial governors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 103-112.
    10. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "When credit bites back: leverage, business cycles, and crises," Working Paper Series 2011-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "The great mortgaging: housing finance, crises and business cycles," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 107-152.
    12. Cormac Ó Gráda, 2005. "The tortoise and the hare : economic growth in Britain and the Netherlands c.1500-1800," Working Papers 200524, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    13. Crafts, Nicholas & O’Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 2014. "Twentieth Century Growth*This research has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / ERC grant agreement no. 249546.," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 263-346, Elsevier.
    14. Guillermo E. Perry & Omar S. Arias & J. Humberto López & William F. Maloney & Luis Servén, 2006. "Poverty Reduction and Growth : Virtuous and Vicious Circles," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6997.
    15. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2016. "The state, the market, and development," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-1, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Felipe, Jesus & Kumar, Utsav & Abdon, Arnelyn, 2013. "Exports, capabilities, and industrial policy in India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 939-956.
    17. Derek Blades & Bart Van Ark & Harry X. Wu, 2010. "Angus Maddison (1926–2010)," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(3), pages 640-646, September.
    18. Jordà, Òscar, 2014. "Assessing the historical role of credit: Business cycles, financial crises and the legacy of Charles S. Peirce," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 729-740.
    19. Srikanta Chatterjee & Allan Rae & Ranjan Ray, 2011. "Globalisation, India’s Evolving Food Economy and Trade Prospects for Australia and New Zealand," Chapters, in: Matthew Tonts & M. A.B. Siddique (ed.), Globalisation, Agriculture and Development, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Yaobo Shi & Chun-Ping Chang & Chyi-Lu Jang & Yu Hao, 2018. "Does economic performance affect officials’ turnover? Evidence from municipal government leaders in China," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1873-1891, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:3:y:2008:i:1:p:67-82. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/jcerrjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.