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Shares of the Rich and the Rest in the World Economy: Income Divergence Between Nations, 1820–2030

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  • Angus MADDISON

Abstract

This paper analyses the forces determining per capita income levels of nations over the past millennium and the prospects to 2030. In the year 1000, Asian countries were in the lead. By 1820, per capita gross domestic product in Western Europe and the USA was twice the Asian average. The divergence had grown much bigger by 1950, but by the 1970s, several Asian countries – Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore – had achieved considerable catch‐up. Since then, there has been a major surge in China and the beginning of a similar phenomenon in India. As a result, the Asian share of world income has risen steadily and, by 2030, will be fairly close to what it was in 1820. I conclude by comparing my projections for 2030 with those of Goldman Sachs, Perkins and Rawski, and Fogel.

Suggested Citation

  • Angus MADDISON, 2008. "Shares of the Rich and the Rest in the World Economy: Income Divergence Between Nations, 1820–2030," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 3(1), pages 67-82, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:3:y:2008:i:1:p:67-82
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1748-3131.2008.00090.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Angus Maddison, 2005. "Measuring And Interpreting World Economic Performance 1500–2001," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(1), pages 1-35, March.
    2. Pranab Bardhan, 2006. "Awakening Giants, Feet of Clay," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 1(1), pages 1-17, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Frédéric Gannon & Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2016. "Aging, international capital flows and long run convergence," Working Papers hal-03475630, HAL.
    2. Yumiko Okamoto, 2014. "Japan's Innovation Strategy toward Asia," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 10(1), pages 77-108, March.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5mcsclpvpm8lsadm6engnbebt7 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Takatoshi ITO & Akira KOJIMA & Colin McKENZIE & Shujiro URATA, 2009. "Editors’ Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 1-18, June.
    5. Angus Maddison, 2008. "The West and the Rest in the World Economy: 1000–2030," World Economics, World Economics, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 9(4), pages 75-100, October.
    6. Jonathan Haskel, 2016. "Do Poor Countries Catch Up to Rich Countries? Review Article on Productivity Convergence: Theory and Evidence by Edward Wolff," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 30, pages 111-117, Spring.
    7. Galor, Oded & Munshi, Kaivan & Wilson, Nicolas, 2013. "Inclusive Institutions and Long-Run Misallocation," MPRA Paper 51643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Frédérique GANNON & Gilles LE GARREC & Vincent TOUZÉ, 2020. "The South’s Demographic Transtiton and International Capital Flows in a Financially Integrated World Economy," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 1-45, March.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6dhper3pho8nspmsluhrt4lcd8 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5mcsclpvpm8lsadm6engnbebt7 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6dhper3pho8nspmsluhrt4lcd8 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Rotarou, Elena S. & Sakellariou, Dikaios, 2017. "Neoliberal reforms in health systems and the construction of long-lasting inequalities in health care: A case study from Chile," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(5), pages 495-503.
    13. Marcus NOLAND, 2008. "Comment on “Shares of the Rich and the Rest in the World Economy: Income Divergence Between Nations, 1820–2030”," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 3(1), pages 83-84, June.
    14. TN Srinivasan, 2013. "Trends and Impacts of Real and Financial Globalization in the People's Republic of China and India since the 1980s," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 30(1), pages 1-30, March.
    15. Dominik Paprotny, 2021. "Convergence Between Developed and Developing Countries: A Centennial Perspective," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 193-225, January.
    16. Jing Wang & Dana Medianu & John Whalley, 2011. "The Contribution of China, India and Brazil to Narrowing North-South Differences in GDP/capita, World Trade Shares, and Market Capitalization," NBER Working Papers 17681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Duarte Leite & Óscar Afonso & Sandra Silva, 2014. "A tale of two countries: a directed technical change approach," FEP Working Papers 539, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    18. Angus Maddison, 2009. "L?Occidente e il Resto del Mondo nell?economia mondiale: un?interpretazione Maddisoniana e Malthusiana dal 1000 al 2030," ARGOMENTI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2009(27), pages 7-30.

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