IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/asiapr/v1y2006i1p15-40.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China's Recent Economic Performance and Future Prospects

Author

Listed:
  • Dwight H. PERKINS

Abstract

Our forecast of China's economic future is based primarily on the supply side growth accounting model. The life cycle model of household saving provides us with the most plausible explanation for a continued high rate of savings and investment. China's labor force will soon stop growing, but migration out of agriculture should have little impact on farm output while providing a steady stream of labor to the modern more productive sectors. There is also room for rapid expansion of human capital. Maintaining high productivity growth will depend primarily on strengthening currently weak institutions, notably the financial sector and, more importantly, the legal system.

Suggested Citation

  • Dwight H. PERKINS, 2006. "China's Recent Economic Performance and Future Prospects," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(1), pages 15-40, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:1:y:2006:i:1:p:15-40
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1748-3131.2006.00002.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1748-3131.2006.00002.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1748-3131.2006.00002.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
    2. Alwyn Young, 2000. "Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period," NBER Working Papers 7856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Rawski, Thomas G., 2001. "What is happening to China's GDP statistics?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 347-354.
    4. Yusuf Shahid & M. Anjum Altaf & Kaoru Nabeshima, 2004. "Global Change and East Asian Policy Initiatives," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14928.
    5. Aart Kraay, 2000. "Household Saving in China," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(3), pages 545-570, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert William Fogel & Enid M. Fogel & Mark Guglielmo & Nathaniel Grotte, 2013. "Acknowledgments, References, Index," NBER Chapters, in: Political Arithmetic: Simon Kuznets and the Empirical Tradition in Economics, pages 119-148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Robert W. Fogel, 2008. "The Impact of the Asian Miracle on the Theory of Economic Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Understanding Long-Run Economic Growth: Geography, Institutions, and the Knowledge Economy, pages 311-354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mustafa Çakir & Alain Kabundi, 2017. "Transmission of China's Shocks to the BRIS Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(3), pages 430-454, September.
    4. Yu Yongding, 2008. "China’s Economic Growth, Global Economic Crisis and China’s Policy Responses (The Quaid-i-Azam Lecture)," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 337-355.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rui HAO & Zheng WEI, 2009. "Sources Of Income Differences Across Chinese Provinces During The Reform Period: A Development Accounting Exercise," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 47(1), pages 1-29, March.
    2. Holz, Carsten A., 2014. "The quality of China's GDP statistics," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 309-338.
    3. Crafts, Nicholas & O’Rourke, Kevin Hjortshøj, 2014. "Twentieth Century Growth*This research has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / ERC grant agreement no. 249546.," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 263-346, Elsevier.
    4. Xiaolei Qian & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Growth Accounting for the Chinese Provinces 1990-2000: Incorporating Human Capital Accumulation," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 21-37.
    5. WHALLEY, John & XIN, Xian, 2010. "China's FDI and non-FDI economies and the sustainability of future high Chinese growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 123-135, March.
    6. Rui Hao, 2011. "Sources of income differences across Chinese provinces during the reform period: a development accounting exercise," CERDI Working papers halshs-00557001, HAL.
    7. Wang, Yan & Yao, Yudong, 2003. "Sources of China's economic growth 1952-1999: incorporating human capital accumulation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 32-52.
    8. Lee, Jong-Wha, 2005. "Human capital and productivity for Korea's sustained economic growth," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 663-687, August.
    9. Kevin S. Nell & Maria M. De Mello, 2019. "The interdependence between the saving rate and technology across regimes: evidence from South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 269-300, January.
    10. Jeni Klugman & Francisco Rodríguez & Hyung-Jin Choi, 2011. "The HDI 2010: new controversies, old critiques," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(2), pages 249-288, June.
    11. Yi Wen, 2011. "Making sense of China’s astronomical foreign reserves," Working Papers 2011-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    12. Kiatipong Ariyapruchya & Cheerapan O-lanthanasate & Chatsurang Karnchanasai, 2006. "Strengthening the Competitiveness of Thai Firms: What Needs to be Done?," Working Papers 2006-03, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    13. B. Bhaskara Rao & Arusha Cooray, 2012. "How useful is growth literature for policies in the developing countries?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 671-681, February.
    14. Niclas Berggren & Mikael Elinder, 2012. "Is tolerance good or bad for growth?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 283-308, January.
    15. Li, Shaomin & Selover, David D. & Stein, Michael, 2011. ""Keep silent and make money": Institutional patterns of earnings management in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 369-382, October.
    16. Richard Herd & Sean Dougherty, 2007. "Growth Prospects in China and India Compared," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 4(1), pages 65-89, June.
    17. Charles Yuji Horioka & Junmin Wan, 2007. "The Determinants of Household Saving in China: A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2077-2096, December.
    18. Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2013. "Energy and Environmental Issues and Policy in China," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 162375, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    19. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Pessôa, Samuel de Abreu & Veloso, Fernando A., 2010. "The evolution of TFP in Latin America: high productivity when distortions were high?," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 699, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    20. Oleg Badunenko & Daniel Henderson & Romain Houssa, 2014. "Significant drivers of growth in Africa," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 339-354, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:1:y:2006:i:1:p:15-40. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/jcerrjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.