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Determination of the international maize price: What is the growing role of Brazil and Ukraine?

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  • Carlos Arnade
  • Linwood Hoffman

Abstract

This paper examines the relationships among maize prices for four countries to determine if newly emerging exporters, Brazil and Ukraine, influence the international price of maize. Our work focuses on each market's participation in the price discovery process rather than trying to determine a price leader. We find that the United States plays the largest role in price discovery, followed by Argentina, Brazil, and Ukraine. We also search for export thresholds and find that Ukraine's contribution to price discovery rises slightly when an export threshold of 2.3 million tons is reached. No export thresholds were found for Brazil. Export thresholds for Argentina were found but only have a minor impact on price relationships. We also found that price relationships vary considerably across seasons of the year.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Arnade & Linwood Hoffman, 2019. "Determination of the international maize price: What is the growing role of Brazil and Ukraine?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(6), pages 735-747, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:50:y:2019:i:6:p:735-747
    DOI: 10.1111/agec.12521
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhepeng Hu & Mindy Mallory & Teresa Serra & Philip Garcia, 2020. "Measuring price discovery between nearby and deferred contracts in storable and nonstorable commodity futures markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(6), pages 825-840, November.
    2. Maximilian Heigermoser & Linde Götz & Miranda Svanidze, 2021. "Price formation within Egypt's wheat tender market: Implications for Black Sea exporters," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 52(5), pages 819-831, September.
    3. Patrick L. Hatzenbuehler & Xiaoxue Du & Kathleen Painter, 2021. "Price transmission with sparse market information: The case of United States chickpeas," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(3), pages 665-682, July.
    4. Adhikari, Saroj & Etienne, Xiaoli L. & Trujillo-Barrera, Andres A. & McConnell, Michael J. & Adam, Brian D., 2022. "Estimating the Effects of Rising International Corn Production and Trade on the US and Global Corn Market," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322283, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Olipra, Jakub, 2020. "Price transmission in (de)regulated agricultural markets," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 59(4), October.
    6. Rafael Baptista Palazzi & Ata Assaf & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle, 2024. "Dynamic connectedness between energy markets and the Brazilian cash market: An empirical analysis pre‐ and post‐COVID‐19," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(1), pages 27-56, January.
    7. Deininger,Klaus W. & Ali,Daniel Ayalew & Kussul,Nataliia & Lavreniuk,Mykola & Nivievskyi,Oleg, 2020. "Using Machine Learning to Assess Yield Impacts of Crop Rotation : Combining Satellite and Statistical Data for Ukraine," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9306, The World Bank.

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