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Dynamic Portfolio Selection on Croatian Financial Markets: MGARCH Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Škrinjarić Tihana

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Croatia)

  • Šego Boško

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Croatia)

Abstract

Background: Investors on financial markets are interested in finding trading strategies which could enable them to beat the market. They always look for best possibilities to achieve above-average returns and manage risks successfully. MGARCH methodology (Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) makes it possible to model changing risks and return dynamics on financial markets on a daily basis. The results could be used in order to enhance portfolio formation and restructuring over time.Objectives: This study utilizes MGARCH methodology on Croatian financial markets in order to enhance portfolio selection on a daily basis. Methods/Approach: MGARCH methodology is applied to the stock market index CROBEX, the bond market index CROBIS and the kuna/euro exchange rate in order to model the co-movements of returns and risks on a daily basis. The estimation results are then used to form successful portfolios.Results: Results indicate that using MGARCH methodology (the CCC and the DCC model) as guidance when forming and rebalancing a portfolio contributes to less portfolio volatility and greater cumulated returns compared to strategies which do not take this methodology into account.Conclusions: It is advisable to use MGARCH methodology when forming and rebalancing portfolios in terms of portfolio selection.

Suggested Citation

  • Škrinjarić Tihana & Šego Boško, 2016. "Dynamic Portfolio Selection on Croatian Financial Markets: MGARCH Approach," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, vol. 7(2), pages 78-90, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bit:bsrysr:v:7:y:2016:i:2:p:78-90
    DOI: 10.1515/bsrj-2016-0014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dolinar Denis & Zoričić Davor & Golubić Zrinka Lovretin, 2019. "Application of semi-deviation as a proxy for the expected return estimation in the Croatian equity market," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 5(1), pages 9-20, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Zagreb Stock Exchange; DCC and CCC GARCH; risk hedging; volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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