IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bit/bsrysr/v11y2020i2p73-85n6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Portfolio Optimization Efficiency Test Considering Data Snooping Bias

Author

Listed:
  • Kresta Aleš

    (VSB – Technical University of Ostrava, Faculty of Economics, Czech Republic)

  • Wang Anlan

    (VSB – Technical University of Ostrava, Faculty of Economics, Czech Republic)

Abstract

Background: In the portfolio optimization area, most of the research is focused on insample portfolio optimization. One may ask a rational question of what the efficiency of the portfolio optimization strategy is and how to measure it.Objectives: The objective of the paper is to propose the approach to measuring the efficiency of the portfolio strategy based on the hypothesis inference methodology and considering a possible data snooping bias. The proposed approach is demonstrated on the Markowitz minimum variance model and the fuzzy probabilities minimum variance model.Methods/Approach: The proposed approach is based on a statistical test. The null hypothesis is that the analysed portfolio optimization strategy creates a portfolio randomly, while the alternative hypothesis is that an optimized portfolio is created in such a way that the risk of the portfolio is lowered.Results: It is found out that the analysed strategies indeed lower the risk of the portfolio during the market’s decline in the global financial crisis and in 94% of the time in the 2009-2019 period.Conclusions: The analysed strategies lower the risk of the portfolio in the out-of-sample period.

Suggested Citation

  • Kresta Aleš & Wang Anlan, 2020. "Portfolio Optimization Efficiency Test Considering Data Snooping Bias," Business Systems Research, Sciendo, vol. 11(2), pages 73-85, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bit:bsrysr:v:11:y:2020:i:2:p:73-85:n:6
    DOI: 10.2478/bsrj-2020-0016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/bsrj-2020-0016
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/bsrj-2020-0016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jorion, Philippe, 1986. "Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 279-292, September.
    2. Shalit, Haim & Yitzhaki, Shlomo, 1984. "Mean-Gini, Portfolio Theory, and the Pricing of Risky Assets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1449-1468, December.
    3. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    4. Farinelli, Simone & Ferreira, Manuel & Rossello, Damiano & Thoeny, Markus & Tibiletti, Luisa, 2008. "Beyond Sharpe ratio: Optimal asset allocation using different performance ratios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2057-2063, October.
    5. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1-N Portfolio Strategy?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 1915-1953, May.
    6. Alexei Chekhlov & Stanislav Uryasev & Michael Zabarankin, 2005. "Drawdown Measure In Portfolio Optimization," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 13-58.
    7. Hiroshi Konno & Hiroaki Yamazaki, 1991. "Mean-Absolute Deviation Portfolio Optimization Model and Its Applications to Tokyo Stock Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(5), pages 519-531, May.
    8. Lwin, Khin T. & Qu, Rong & MacCarthy, Bart L., 2017. "Mean-VaR portfolio optimization: A nonparametric approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(2), pages 751-766.
    9. Vladimir Rankovic & Mikica Drenovak & Branko Uroševic & Ranko Jelic, 2016. "Mean Univariate-GARCH VaR Portfolio Optimization: Actual Portfolio Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 5731, CESifo.
    10. Fulga, Cristinca, 2016. "Portfolio optimization under loss aversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(1), pages 310-322.
    11. Martin R. Young, 1998. "A Minimax Portfolio Selection Rule with Linear Programming Solution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(5), pages 673-683, May.
    12. Halbert White, 2000. "A Reality Check for Data Snooping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1097-1126, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Istvan Varga-Haszonits & Fabio Caccioli & Imre Kondor, 2016. "Replica approach to mean-variance portfolio optimization," Papers 1606.08679, arXiv.org.
    2. León, Angel & Navarro, Lluís & Nieto, Belén, 2019. "Screening rules and portfolio performance," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 642-662.
    3. Anlan Wang & Aleš Kresta & Tomáš Tichý, 2024. "Evaluation of strategy portfolios," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 1-27, June.
    4. Varga-Haszonits, Istvan & Caccioli, Fabio & Kondor, Imre, 2016. "Replica approach to mean-variance portfolio optimization," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68955, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Jacobs, Heiko & Müller, Sebastian & Weber, Martin, 2014. "How should individual investors diversify? An empirical evaluation of alternative asset allocation policies," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 62-85.
    6. Massimiliano Caporin & Grégory M. Jannin & Francesco Lisi & Bertrand B. Maillet, 2014. "A Survey On The Four Families Of Performance Measures," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 917-942, December.
    7. Allen, D.E. & McAleer, M.J. & Powell, R.J. & Singh, A.K., 2015. "Down-side Risk Metrics as Portfolio Diversification Strategies across the GFC," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-32, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    8. Mainik, Georg & Mitov, Georgi & Rüschendorf, Ludger, 2015. "Portfolio optimization for heavy-tailed assets: Extreme Risk Index vs. Markowitz," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 115-134.
    9. Georg Mainik & Georgi Mitov & Ludger Ruschendorf, 2015. "Portfolio optimization for heavy-tailed assets: Extreme Risk Index vs. Markowitz," Papers 1505.04045, arXiv.org.
    10. Weidong Lin & Jose Olmo & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2022. "Portfolio Selection Under Systemic Risk," Working Papers 202208, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    11. Víctor Adame-García & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "“Resolution of optimization problems and construction of efficient portfolios: An application to the Euro Stoxx 50 index"," IREA Working Papers 201702, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2017.
    12. P. Kumar & Jyotirmayee Behera & A. K. Bhurjee, 2022. "Solving mean-VaR portfolio selection model with interval-typed random parameter using interval analysis," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 59(1), pages 41-77, March.
    13. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2014. "European Market Portfolio Diversifcation Strategies across the GFC," Working Papers in Economics 14/25, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    14. Fabio Caccioli & Imre Kondor & G'abor Papp, 2015. "Portfolio Optimization under Expected Shortfall: Contour Maps of Estimation Error," Papers 1510.04943, arXiv.org.
    15. Aleš Kresta, 2015. "Application of Performance Ratios in Portfolio Optimization," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 63(6), pages 1969-1977.
    16. Amita Sharma & Sebastian Utz & Aparna Mehra, 2017. "Omega-CVaR portfolio optimization and its worst case analysis," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 39(2), pages 505-539, March.
    17. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Han, Qiheng & Wu, Wensheng & Cao, Zhiguang, 2018. "Asset allocation strategies, data snooping, and the 1 / N rule," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 257-269.
    18. Kondor, Imre & Pafka, Szilard & Nagy, Gabor, 2007. "Noise sensitivity of portfolio selection under various risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1545-1573, May.
    19. Bradrania, Reza & Pirayesh Neghab, Davood, 2021. "State-dependent asset allocation using neural networks," MPRA Paper 115254, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Shelton Peiris & Abhay K. Singh, 2014. "Hedge Fund Portfolio Diversification Strategies Across the GFC," Working Papers in Economics 14/27, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    data snooping bias; financial crisis; hypothesis test; minimum-risk portfolio; portfolio optimization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bit:bsrysr:v:11:y:2020:i:2:p:73-85:n:6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.