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Common Predictable Components in Regional Stock Markets

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  • Cheung, Yin-Wong
  • He, Jia
  • Ng, Lilian K

Abstract

This paper employs recently developed multivariate methods to study the predictability of international stock market returns. The authors find evidence of significant common predictable components within the Pacific, the European, and the North American stock markets using region-specific instrumental variables. The degree of predictability of these common movements, however, varies across regional markets and across subperiods. Results indicate that only North American instrumental variables have the ability to predict excess returns on the stock markets in the other two regions but not vice versa.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheung, Yin-Wong & He, Jia & Ng, Lilian K, 1997. "Common Predictable Components in Regional Stock Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 35-42, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:15:y:1997:i:1:p:35-42
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Knif, Johan & Pynnonen, Seppo, 1999. "Local and global price memory of international stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 129-147, April.
    2. K. Chaudhuri & S. Smiles, 2004. "Stock market and aggregate economic activity: evidence from Australia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 121-129.
    3. Crowder, William J. & Wohar, Mark E., 1998. "Cointegration, forecasting and international stock prices," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 181-204.
    4. Martin J. Lenardon & Anna Amirdjanova, 2006. "Interaction between stock indices via changepoint analysis," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(5‐6), pages 573-586, September.
    5. Korkie, Bob & Sivakumar, Ranjini & Turtle, Harry, 2002. "The dual contributions of information instruments in return models: magnitude and direction predictability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 511-523, December.
    6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ng, Lilian K., 1998. "International evidence on the stock market and aggregate economic activity," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 281-296, September.
    7. Benjamin W. Wah & Ming-Lun Qian, 2006. "Constrained Formulations And Algorithms For Predicting Stock Prices By Recurrent Fir Neural Networks," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(04), pages 639-658.
    8. Purna Chandra Padhan, 2007. "The nexus between stock market and economic activity: an empirical analysis for India," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(10), pages 741-753, September.
    9. Orawan Ratanapakorn & Subhash C Sharma, 2002. "Interrelationships among regional stock indices," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 11(2), pages 91-108.
    10. Cheung, Yin-Wong & He, Jia & Ng, Lilian K., 1997. "What are the global sources of rational variation in international equity returns?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 821-836, December.
    11. Galsband, Victoria, 2012. "Downside risk of international stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2379-2388.
    12. Theodore Syriopoulos, 2004. "International portfolio diversification to Central European stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(17), pages 1253-1268.
    13. Hadhri, Sinda, 2023. "News-based economic policy uncertainty and financial contagion: An international evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 63-76.
    14. Harris, Richard D.F. & Shen, Jian & Yilmaz, Fatih, 2022. "Maximally predictable currency portfolios," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    15. Bhuiyan, Erfan M. & Chowdhury, Murshed, 2020. "Macroeconomic variables and stock market indices: Asymmetric dynamics in the US and Canada," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 62-74.
    16. Riadh El abed, 2017. "Exploring the nexus between Stock prices and Macroeconomic shocks: Panel VAR approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 2053-2066.
    17. Ratanapakorn, Orawan & Sharma, Subhash C., 2002. "Interrelationships among regional stock indices," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 91-108.
    18. Chris Bilson & Tim Brailsford & Aiden Hallett & Jing Shi, 2012. "The impact of terrorism on global equity market integration," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 37(1), pages 47-60, April.

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