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Changes in GDP’s measurement error volatility and response of the monetary policy rate: Two approaches

Author

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  • Julian A. Parra

    (Banco de la República)

  • Carmiña O. Vargas

    (Banco de la República)

Abstract

Using a stylized model in which output is measured with error, we derive the optimal policy response to the demand shock signal and to changes in the measurement error volatility from two different perspectives: the minimization of the expected loss (from which we derive the ‘standard’ policy) and the minimization of the maximum possible loss across all potential scenarios (from which we derive the ‘prudent’ or ‘robust’ policy). We find that (1) the prudent policymaker reacts more aggressively to the shock signal than the standard one and (2) while the standard policymaker always mitigates her reaction if the measurement error volatility rises, the prudent one may even increase her response if her risk aversion is very high. When we incorporate forward-looking expectations, the second result is preserved but, in this case, the prudent policymaker is less aggressive than the standard one in responding to the shock signal.

Suggested Citation

  • Julian A. Parra & Carmiña O. Vargas, 2014. "Changes in GDP’s measurement error volatility and response of the monetary policy rate: Two approaches," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(75), pages 41-47, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:32:y:2014:i:75:p:41-47
    DOI: 10.1016/j.espe.2014.08.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2009. "Prudent monetary policy and prediction of the output gap," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 217-230, June.
    2. Bodenstein, Martin & Hebden, James & Nunes, Ricardo, 2012. "Imperfect credibility and the zero lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 135-149.
    3. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 2007. "Introduction to Robustness," Introductory Chapters, in: Robustness, Princeton University Press.
    4. Gadi Barlevy, 2009. "Policymaking under uncertainty: Gradualism and robustness," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 33(Q II), pages 38-55.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prudence Robustness; Measurement error; Optimal Monetary Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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