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Análisis de eficiencia de los portafolio pensionales obligatorios en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Diego Jara
  • Carolina Gómez
  • Andrés Pardo

Abstract

El ahorro pensional colombiano depende en gran medida de las decisiones de inversión tomadas por las administradoras de los fondos de pensiones (AFP) obligatorias. Para un futuro pensionado es de natural interés analizar la eficiencia financiera de estos portafolios. En el presente trabajo se realiza este análisis usando el marco clásico de frontera eficiente en el espacio media-varianza; para esto, se selecciona un conjunto de activos en los que las AFP pueden invertir y se exhibe una metodología para determinar la distribución conjunta de sus retornos. Los resultados muestran lo siguiente: primero, los fondos de pensiones están por debajo de la frontera eficiente que considera las restricciones regulatorias; segundo,todos los portafolios eficientes tienen exposición a activos externos de 20%, máximo permitido por la Superintendencia Financiera; tercero, la única restricción de inversión que reduce notablemente la eficiencia potencial es la de activos externos. Estas conclusiones son robustas a cambios razonables en los parámetros usados, en los supuestos del modelo, y en el período de muestra. Esto no implica que las AFP se comporten irracionalmente; es posible que éstas maximicen una función objetivo distinta, que considere otros elementos de mercado, regulación y estructura corporativa. Por ejemplo, es posible que la estructura de comisiones y la rentabilidad mínima afecten el comportamiento de inversión de las AFP, estudio que se deja para trabajos posteriores.Classification-JEL:D81, G11, G23.

Suggested Citation

  • Diego Jara & Carolina Gómez & Andrés Pardo, 2005. "Análisis de eficiencia de los portafolio pensionales obligatorios en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 23(49), pages 192-239, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:23:y:2005:i:49:p:192-239
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.4905
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:fth:calaec:16-92 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:cdl:ucsbec:16-92 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Diego Jara, 2006. "Modelo de la regulación de las AFP en Colombia y su impacto en el portafolio de los fondos de pensiones," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 24(52), pages 162-221, December.
    2. Javier Alonso & Carlos Herrera & Claudia Llanes Valenzuela & David Tuesta, 2010. "Simulations of long-term returns and replacement rates in the Colombian pension system," Working Papers 1029, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    3. Alejandro Reveiz & Carlos León & Juan Mario Laserna & Ivonne Martínez, 2008. "Recomendaciones para la modificación del régimen de pensiones obligatorias de Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 26(56), pages 78-113, June.
    4. Luis Eduardo Arango & Luis Fernando Melo, 2006. "Determinantes De La Elección De Administradora De Pensiones: Primeras Estimaciones A Partir De Agregados," Borradores de Economia 2315, Banco de la Republica.
    5. Pereda Javier, 2007. "Estimación de la Frontera Eficiente para las AFP en el Perú y el Impacto de los Límites de Inversión: 1995-2004," Working Papers 2007-009, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    6. Diego Jara, 2006. "Modelo de la Regulación de las AFP en Colombia y su Impacto en el Portafolio de los Fondos de Pensiones," Borradores de Economia 416, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Heinz Rudolph & Hela Cheikhrouhou & Roberto Rocha & Craig Thorburn, 2007. "Financial Sector Dimensions of the Colombian Pension System," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6785.
    8. Carlos Alberto Soto Quintero & Alejandra Arboleda Bedoya & Juan Carlos Gutiérrez Betancur, 2012. "Trayectorias óptimas de inversión durante el ciclo de vida en un sistema de multifondos," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10713, Universidad EAFIT.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    frontera eficiente; retornos esperados; límites de inversión; administradoras de fondos de pensiones obligatorias (AFP).Note:;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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