IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bcp/journl/v7y2023i10p1556-1571.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk of Geometric Increase in Debt Servicing on Public Investments in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Abdullahi Ahmed Mohammed PhD

    (Yusuf Maitama Sule University, Kano)

  • Hamza Dahiru

    (Katsina State Ministry of Budget & Economic Planning)

  • Bishir Bawa

    (Katsina State Ministry of Budget & Economic Planning)

Abstract

The study investigated the risk of geometric increase in debt service on public investments in Nigeria using a time series data from 1985 – 2021. The study employs ARDL model in analyzing the behavior of the variables. The findings show that there is a significant direct relationship between domestic debt stock and public investment. Similarly, it also shows same non-risky relationship between external debt and public investment in the past two years as shown from lagged values of last year and the year preceding it. External debt servicing has non-risky relationship with public investment in the current year as it avoid crowding out effect of private investment. But it shows a risk relationship in the two years before. The results also visualize that there is a direct relationship between FDI and public investment in the current year and indirect relationship in the preceding years. It can also be seen that a negative relationship exists between inflation and public investment, while a negative relationship exists between exchange rate and public investment in the current year, a positive relationship exists between exchange rate and public investment for Nigerian economy which suggests that exchange rate volatility matters as it affects debt servicing in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdullahi Ahmed Mohammed PhD & Hamza Dahiru & Bishir Bawa, 2023. "Risk of Geometric Increase in Debt Servicing on Public Investments in Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 7(10), pages 1556-1571, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bcp:journl:v:7:y:2023:i:10:p:1556-1571
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/Digital-Library/volume-7-issue-10/1556-1571.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/articles/risk-of-geometric-increase-in-debt-servicing-on-public-investments-in-nigeria/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2008. "The Debt-Growth Nexus in Poor Countries: A Reassessment," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-28.
    2. Hector Butts, 2009. "Short Term External Debt and Economic Growth—Granger Causality: Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 93-111, June.
    3. Adepoju, Adenike Adebusola & Salau, Adekunle Sheu & Obayelu, Abiodun Elijah, 2007. "The Effects of External Debt Management on Sustainable Economic Growth and Development: Lessons from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 2147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Maureen Were, 2001. "The Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in Kenya: An Empirical Assessment," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-116, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Introduction to "Developing Country Debt and the World Economy"," NBER Chapters, in: Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, pages 1-34, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1989. "Developing Country Debt and the World Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number sach89-3.
    7. Cohen, Daniel, 1995. "Large external debt and (slow) domestic growth a theoretical analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 1141-1163.
    8. Samson Edo, 2002. "The External Debt Problem in Africa: A Comparative Study of Nigeria and Morocco," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 221-236.
    9. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brian Tavonga Mazorodze, 2020. "Re-visiting the External Debt-Economic Growth Question in Zimbabwe," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 12(2), pages 1-8.
    2. Taner Turan & Halit Yanıkkaya, 2021. "External debt, growth and investment for developing countries: some evidence for the debt overhang hypothesis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(3), pages 319-341, September.
    3. Levy, Daniel & Mayer, Tamir & Raviv, Alon, 2022. "Economists in the 2008 financial crisis: Slow to see, fast to act," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. N.M. Healey, 1994. "The international debt crisis: the end of the beginning, not yet the beginning of the end," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 47(188), pages 75-97.
    5. Daniel Levy & Tamir Mayer & Alon Raviv, 2020. "Academic Scholarship in Light of the 2008 Financial Crisis: Textual Analysis of NBER Working Papers," Working Papers hal-02488796, HAL.
    6. Olugbenga Onafowora & Oluwole Owoye, 2019. "Impact of external debt shocks on economic growth in Nigeria: a SVAR analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 157-179, May.
    7. Nunnenkamp, Peter, 1989. "Capital drain, debt relief, and creditworthiness of developing countries," Kiel Working Papers 379, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. M. Ayhan Kose & Raymond Riezman, 2013. "Trade shocks and macroeconomic fluctuations in Africa," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Raymond Riezman (ed.), International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 19, pages 369-394, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Kyle, Steven C., 1990. "Debt-For-Nature Swaps and the Environment in Africa," Staff Papers 121546, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    10. Mario Cimoli & Jose Antonio Ocampo & Gabriel Porcile & Nunzia Saporito, 2020. "Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 740-761, October.
    11. Hofman, Bert & Reisen, Helmut, 1990. "Debt overhang, liquidity constraints and adjustment incentives," Kiel Working Papers 432, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    12. Adewale Hassan & Daniel Meyer, 2021. "Exploring the Channels of Transmission between External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, April.
    13. Saungweme Talknice & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2018. "An Analysis of Public Debt Servicing in Zambia: Trends, Reforms and Challenges," Croatian International Relations Review, Sciendo, vol. 24(81), pages 113-136, May.
    14. James R. Brown & Lauren C. Lax & Bruce C. Petersen, 2010. "Financial Market Crises and Natural Resource Production," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 93-124, March.
    15. Indrani Chakraborty, 2007. "Economic Reforms, Capital Inflows and Macro Economic Impact in India," Working Papers id:1064, eSocialSciences.
    16. P.Kalonga Stambuli, 2003. "Paris Club Debt Relief, Traditional Frameworks and Implications for Poor Country Debt," International Finance 0301003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Godínez Zúñiga, Víctor Manuel, 1990. "Evolución de la estrategia internacional para el manejo de la crisis de endeudamiento de los países en desarrollo," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL en México (Estudios e Investigaciones) 26864, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    18. Abida Yousaf & Tahir Mukhtar, 2020. "External Debt and Capital Accumulation Nexus: Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 59(1), pages 29-44.
    19. Tony Killick, 1996. "Principals, Agents and the Limitations of BWI Conditionality," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 211-229, March.
    20. Sebastian Edwards & Julio Santaella, 1993. "Devaluation Controversies in the Developing Countries: Lessons from the Bretton Woods Era," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Bretton Woods System: Lessons for International Monetary Reform, pages 405-460, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bcp:journl:v:7:y:2023:i:10:p:1556-1571. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dr. Pawan Verma (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.