IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bas/econth/y2018i5p99-116.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global aspects of the twin deficit hypothesis

Author

Listed:
  • Maria Panova

Abstract

The twin deficit hypothesis, which explores the causal link between the budget deficit and the current account deficit, is put to the test for a sample of 188 countries for the period 1980-2014. The obtained results show that there is a complex impact on the current account dynamics, which cannot be explained solely by the dynamics of a single variable, or, if it is possible, then this variable is not the budget balance. It is found that the average budget balance is positive in only 36 countries (it is negative in the remaining 152 countries), ergo, the twin deficit hypothesis is confirmed. This is also supported by the VAR analysis - the double deficit hypothesis is valid for all groups of coefficients except those of Tuvalu, Lebanon, Eritrea and Equatorial Guinea, which have extreme coefficients (above -10).

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Panova, 2018. "Global aspects of the twin deficit hypothesis," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 99-116.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econth:y:2018:i:5:p:99-116
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://etj.iki.bas.bg/storage/app/uploads/public/62a/065/8be/62a0658be3975387342006.pdf
    Download Restriction: Fee access (Bulgarian)
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barro, Robert J, 1989. "The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
    2. Lau, E. & Baharumshah, A. Z., 2006. "Twin Deficits Hypothesis in SEACEN Countries: A Panel Data Analysis of Relationships between Public Budget and Current Account Deficits," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 6(2).
    3. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2000. "What Have We Learned from the Reagan Deficits and Their Disappearance?," NBER Working Papers 7647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alberto Bagnai, 2006. "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 137-155, November.
    5. Christiane Nickel & Andreas Tudyka, 2014. "Fiscal Stimulus in Times of High Debt: Reconsidering Multipliers and Twin Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1313-1344, October.
    6. Farzane Bagheri & Fatemeh Daroghe Hazrati, 2012. "Twin Deficits and Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle in the Case Iran," Journal of Social and Development Sciences, AMH International, vol. 3(5), pages 167-171.
    7. Benjamin Friedman, 2000. "What Have We Learned from the Disappearance of the Deficits?," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 5-21, July.
    8. Leonardo Bartolini & Amartya Lahiri, 2006. "Twin deficits, twenty years later," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 12(Oct).
    9. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau, 2009. "Structural breaks and the twin deficits hypothesis: Evidence from East Asian countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2517-2524.
    10. Aristovnik, Aleksander & Djurić, Sandra, 2010. "Twin deficits and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: a comparison of the EU member states and candidate countries," MPRA Paper 24149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ahmed M. Khalid & Teo Wee Guan, 1999. "Causality tests of budget and current account deficits: Cross-country comparisons," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 389-402.
    12. Tuck Cheong Tang & Evan Lau, 2009. "General Equilibrium Perception on Twin Deficits Hypothesis: An Empirical Evidence for the U.S," Monash Economics Working Papers 09-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    13. Nikolina E. Kosteletou, 2013. "Financial Integration, Euro and the Twin Deficits of Southern Eurozone Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(2), pages 161-178, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nazia Abdul Rehman & Musarrat Shamshir & Khurram Shakir, 2020. "Correlation of Macroeconomic Variables with Twin Deficit in Pakistan," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 16-11.
    2. Litsios, Ioannis & Pilbeam, Keith, 2017. "An empirical analysis of the nexus between investment, fiscal balances and current account balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 143-152.
    3. Nazia Abdul Rehman & Musarrat Shamshir & Khurram Shakir, 2020. "Correlation of Macroeconomic Variables with Twin Deficit in Pakistan," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-16.
    4. Piotr Bartkiewicz, 2020. "Quantitative Easing: New Normal or Emergency Measure?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    5. Ermira Kalaj & Mithat Mema, 2015. "Investigating the Twin Deficits in Albania," European Journal of Social Sciences Education and Research Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 2, May - Aug.
    6. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2015. "Ricardian equivalence and twin deficits hypotheses in the euro area," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 17(2), pages 148-166, October.
    7. Nurudeen Abu & Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, 2020. "An Empirical Investigation of the Twin Deficits Hypothesis in Nigeria: Evidence from Cointegration Techniques," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 14(3), September.
    8. Armanda Keqi, 2014. "Higher Education and Graduate Employment in Albania," European Journal of Social Sciences Education and Research Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 1, May - Aug.
    9. Manamba Epaphra, 0. "The Twin Deficits Hypothesis: An Empirical Analysis for Tanzania," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 20(65), pages 2-34, September.
    10. Mumtaz, Kinza & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Dynamics of Twin Deficits in South Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 74592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Holmes, Mark J., 2011. "Threshold cointegration and the short-run dynamics of twin deficit behaviour," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 271-277, September.
    12. Pilbeam, K. & Litsios, I., 2015. "An Empirical Analysis of the Nexus between Investment, Fiscal Balances and Current Account Balances in Greece, Portugal and Spain," Working Papers 15/18, Department of Economics, City University London.
    13. Samia OMRANE BELGUITH, 2016. "Twin deficit in MENA countries: an empirical investigation," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 19(60), pages 123-146, June.
    14. Cosimo Magazzino, 2012. "Fiscal Policy, Consumption and Current Account in the European Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1330-1344.
    15. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Untangling the causal relationship between government budget and current account deficits in OECD countries: Evidence from bootstrap panel Granger causality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 95-104.
    16. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2013. "Twin Deficits in the European Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 289-310, August.
    17. Konstantinos P. Panousis & Minoas Koukouritakis, 2020. "Twin Deficits: Evidence From Portugal, Italy, Spain and Greece," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(5), pages 332-338, September.
    18. Kalou, Sofia & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2012. "The twin deficits hypothesis: Revisiting an EMU country," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 230-241.
    19. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "Fiscal stance, foreign capital inflows and the behavior of current account in the Asian countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 523-549, February.
    20. Hany Eldemerdash & Hugh Metcalf & Sara Maioli, 2014. "Twin deficits: new evidence from a developing (oil vs. non-oil) countries’ perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 825-851, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bas:econth:y:2018:i:5:p:99-116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Diana Dimitrova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ikbasbg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.