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A Modelling Approach for Forecasting Net Exports of Electricity from Bulgaria

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  • Dimitar Zlatinov

Abstract

The report presents a modelling approach for forecasting Bulgarian net exports of electricity based on an empirical analysis of the factors affecting trade with this specific commodity. A brief overview of the models and approaches for forecasting the production and export of electricity is made and their adequacy is assessed regarding the situation of the electricity market in Bulgaria and the region. On this basis, a modelling approach is foreseen to predict the net exports of electricity by 2035, taking into account the current situation and prospects for the development of the electricity sector in Bulgaria and Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitar Zlatinov, 2018. "A Modelling Approach for Forecasting Net Exports of Electricity from Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 147-153.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2018:i:5:p:147-153
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Borislava Galabova & Nedialko Nestorov, 2018. "State and Trends of Bulgaria’s Foreign Trade with Ores and Concentrates," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 109-140.
    2. Chandran, V.G.R. & Sharma, Susan & Madhavan, Karunagaran, 2010. "Electricity consumption-growth nexus: The case of Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 606-612, January.
    3. Craig S. Hakkio & Jun Nie, 2014. "Implications of recent U.S. energy trends for trade forecasts," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 29-51.
    4. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2005. "Electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1109-1116, June.
    5. Sözen, Adnan & Arcaklioglu, Erol & Özkaymak, Mehmet, 2005. "Turkey's net energy consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 209-221, June.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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