IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bas/econst/y2003i2p34-44.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Revisiting the Relationship between Real Exchange Rate and Trade Balances

Author

Listed:
  • Ganesh S. Mani
  • Srivyal Vuyyuri

Abstract

This paper examines a study, which investigates the impact of real exchange rates on trade balances of three countries in South with the US. The relationship between real exchange rates and trade balances was found to be ambiguous as revealed by previous empirical studies. This study applies Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests for stationarity followed by the cointegration tests. All variables in the model have been found to be non-stationary but cointegrated for all the countries studied. The results show that the impact of real exchange rates on trade balances is significant in most cases and that the generalized Marshall-Lerner condition seems to hold. We also specify and estimate a model by Stock and Watson (1989) to investigation whether and to what extent bilateral trade balances respond to real exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Ganesh S. Mani & Srivyal Vuyyuri, 2003. "Revisiting the Relationship between Real Exchange Rate and Trade Balances," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 34-44.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2003:i:2:p:34-44
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ceeol.com/aspx/issuedetails.aspx?issueid=53d7f7d3-74cc-484d-be49-45d27417d809&articleid=e3064ba3-8b61-4f70-bbaa-d17acec088c0#ae3064ba3-8b61-4f70-bbaa-d17acec088c0
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Helen B. Junz & Rudolf R. Rhomberg, 1973. "Price competitiveness in export trade among industrial countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Boyd, Derick & Caporale, Gugielmo Maria & Smith, Ron, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 187-200, July.
    5. Peter Wilson, 2001. "Exchange Rates and the Trade Balance for Dynamic Asian Economies—Does the J-Curve Exist for Singapore, Malaysia, and Korea?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 389-413, October.
    6. Junz, Helen B & Rhomberg, Rudolf R, 1973. "Price Competitiveness in Export Trade Among Industrial Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 412-418, May.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    8. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1991. "Is there a long-run relation between the trade balance and the real effective exchange rate of LDCs?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 403-407, August.
    9. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    10. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May.
    11. Warner, Dennis & Kreinin, Mordechai E, 1983. "Determinants of International Trade Flows," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(1), pages 96-104, February.
    12. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Malixi, Margaret, 1992. "More evidence on the J curve from LDCs," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-653, October.
    13. Clarida, Richard H, 1994. "Cointegration, Aggregate Consumption, and the Demand for Imports: A Structural Econometric Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 298-308, March.
    14. Cushman, David O., 1983. "The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 45-63, August.
    15. Lastrapes, William D. & Koray, Faik, 1990. "Exchange rate volatility and U.S. multilateral trade flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 341-362.
    16. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    17. Wilson, John F & Takacs, Wendy E, 1979. "Differential Responses to Price and Exchange Rate Influences in the Foreign Trade of Selected Industrial Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(2), pages 267-279, May.
    18. Hernán Rincón Castro, 2001. "Exchange Rates and Trade Balance: Testing the Short-and-Long-Run Relationship Using Data for Latin American Countries," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 51-103, January-J.
    19. R. Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2003. "Is the J-Curve Effect Observable for Small North European Economies?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 119-134, April.
    20. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    21. Miles, Marc A, 1979. "The Effects of Devaluation on the Trade Balance and the Balance of Payments: Some New Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(3), pages 600-620, June.
    22. Stephen P. Magee, 1973. "Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(1), pages 303-325.
    23. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "A Simple MLE of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," NBER Technical Working Papers 0083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1986. "Determinants of international trade flows : The Case of Developing Countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 107-123.
    25. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    26. Ellen E. Meade, 1988. "Exchange rates, adjustment, and the J-curve," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 633-644.
    27. Paul R. Krugman & Richard E. Baldwin, 1987. "The Persistence of the U.S. Trade Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 1-56.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Gürtler, 2019. "Dynamic analysis of trade balance behavior in a small open economy: the J-curve phenomenon and the Czech economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 469-497, February.
    2. Hsing, Yu, 2009. "Test of the J-curve for the DR-CAFTA countries and policy implications," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 293-301, September.
    3. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad & Harvey, Hanafiah, 2016. "Asymmetry cointegration and the J-curve: New evidence from Malaysia-Singapore commodity trade," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 14(PB), pages 211-226.
    4. Hsing Yu, 2008. "A Study of the J-Curve for Seven Selected Latin American Countries," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Artatrana Ratha & Eungmin Kang, 2014. "Asian Financial Crisis And Korean Trade Dynamics," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(4), pages 862-877, October.
    6. Kimbugwe, Hassan, 2006. "The bilateral J-Curve hypothesis between Turkey and her 9 trading partners," MPRA Paper 4254, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2013. "Empirical tests of the Marshall-Lerner condition: a literature review," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 411-443, May.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Aftab, 2017. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes and the J-curve: New Evidence from 61 Malaysia–Thailand Industries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 30-46, November.
    9. Gokhan H. Akay & Atilla Cifter & Ozdemir Teke, 2017. "Turkish tourism, exchange rates and income," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 66-77, February.
    10. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Robert Mudida, 2015. "Testing the Marshall–Lerner Condition in Kenya," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(2), pages 253-268, June.
    11. Esmaeil Ebadi, 2020. "Comparison of the Marshall-Lerner condition in OECD and Asian countries: new evidence from pooled mean group estimation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1332-1348.
    12. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Halicioglu, Ferda, 2021. "Does the real exchange rate play any role in the trade between Mexico and Canada? An asymmetric analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1-21.
    13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Sujata Saha, 2017. "Asymmetric response of the US–India trade balance to exchange rate changes: Evidence from 68 industries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(10), pages 2226-2254, October.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2021. "Asymmetric J-curve: evidence from UK-German commodity trade," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1029-1081, November.
    15. Bilgin, Cevat, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Exports: A Sectoral Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis for Turkey," MPRA Paper 101316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Cem IŞIK & Magdalena RADULESCU & Aleksandra FEDAJEV, 2019. "The effects of exchange rate depreciations and appreciations on the tourism trade balance: the case of Spain," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 221-237, June.
    17. A. Kim, 2009. "An empirical analysis of Korea's trade imbalances with the US and Japan," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 211-226.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jehanzeb Cheema, 2009. "Short-Run And Long-Run Effects Of Currency Depreciation On The Bilateral Trade Balance Between Pakistan And Her Major Trading Partners," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 19-41, June.
    19. Jiranyakul, Komain & Brahmasrene, Tantatape, 2002. "An Analysis of the Determinants of Thailand’s Exports and Imports wtih Major Trading Partners," MPRA Paper 45080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Mehmet Yazici, 2008. "The Exchange Rate and the Trade Balances of Turkish Agriculture, Manufacturing and Mining," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 45-52, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2003:i:2:p:34-44. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Diana Dimitrova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ikbasbg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.